Football · USA USL League One · 26/09, 20:00

Prediction: Charlotte Independence vs Fort Wayne FC

Team pages: Charlotte Independence · Fort Wayne FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.9Total

Charlotte Independence2.33

Fort Wayne FC1.57

1X2

54% 22% 24%

Charlotte Independence Draw Fort Wayne FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Charlotte Independence 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Fort Wayne FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Charlotte Independence 0–1–0 Fort Wayne FC (1 last)

Fort Wayne FC2-2Charlotte Independence

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Charlotte Independence 1549 · Fort Wayne FC 1467

	Charlotte Independence	Draw	Fort Wayne FC
Our model	54%	21%	25%
Market	53%	23%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.9 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlotte Independence (rating 1549 vs 1467).
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charlotte Independence	Fort Wayne FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.3	1.7 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.7	2.8 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.4	5.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.90

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.26 ★
2	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.93

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:54 +4’	1.67	3.90	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:25 +130’	1.66	4.26	3.93

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Charlotte Independence 0–1–0 Fort Wayne FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 USA USL League One	Fort Wayne FC	2-2 HT 2-2	Charlotte Independence

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	28	18	4	6	50	30	58
2	Charlotte Independence	27	17	5	5	63	39	56
3	Forward Madison FC	27	15	6	6	50	26	51
4	One Knoxville SC	27	13	8	6	44	31	47
5	AC Boise	27	13	7	7	43	37	46
6	Chattanooga Red Wolves	26	13	4	9	47	38	43
7	Spokane Velocity FC	24	12	4	8	36	33	40
8	Fort Wayne FC	26	10	7	9	41	35	37
9	Corpus Christi FC	26	8	9	9	30	36	33
10	Antelope Valley Alta	28	8	8	12	34	40	32
11	Sarasota Paradise	26	8	6	12	33	39	30
12	Portland Hearts of Pine	27	7	9	11	39	46	30
13	Westchester SC	27	8	5	14	46	45	29
14	FC Naples	26	8	4	14	29	43	28
15	Greenville Triumph SC	26	6	5	15	29	48	23
16	New York Cosmos	26	6	4	16	32	52	22
17	Richmond Kickers	26	5	5	16	25	53	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charlotte Independence	Fort Wayne FC
Richmond Kickers	2-1 W	2-0 W
Union Omaha	0-2 L	0-2 L
Portland Hearts of Pine	3-2 W	4-1 W
Antelope Valley Alta	5-0 W	0-3 L
Greenville Triumph SC	1-0 W	3-1 W
One Knoxville SC	3-1 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Fort Wayne FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Charlotte Independence

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-1	2-1	8	8	W
17/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
13/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	4-2	5-4	4	7	W
06/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
03/09	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	3-2	5	4	W
29/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	4-0	5-0	3	4	W
23/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	3-0	3-1	4	7	W
09/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	9	9	W
02/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-0	3-1	5	3	W

Fort Wayne FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-2	2-2	7	8	D
17/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	2-0	2-3	7	6	L
13/09	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-1	3-1	2	7	W
06/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-2	2-4	9	7	L
03/09	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
30/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	2-0	4-1	1	6	W
16/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	1-2	10	6	L
09/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	13	5	L
02/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
26/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-3	10	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charlotte Independence vs Fort Wayne FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Charlotte Independence win (54%). Probabilities: Charlotte Independence 54%, draw 22%, Fort Wayne FC 24%.

How many goals are expected in Charlotte Independence vs Fort Wayne FC?

The model expects 3.9 goals (Charlotte Independence 2.33 · Fort Wayne FC 1.57), with a 59% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Charlotte Independence vs Fort Wayne FC?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.