Football · USA USL League One · 27/09, 01:00

Prediction: Greenville Triumph SC vs Union Omaha

Team pages: Greenville Triumph SC · Union Omaha

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Greenville Triumph SC1.17

Union Omaha1.59

1X2

27% 26% 46%

Greenville Triumph SC Draw Union Omaha

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Greenville Triumph SC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Union Omaha 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Greenville Triumph SC 1–1–4 Union Omaha (6 last)

Union Omaha2-0Greenville Triumph SC
Greenville Triumph SC0-0Union Omaha
Union Omaha1-0Greenville Triumph SC
Greenville Triumph SC3-0Union Omaha
Union Omaha2-1Greenville Triumph SC
Union Omaha3-1Greenville Triumph SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Greenville Triumph SC 1427 · Union Omaha 1585

	Greenville Triumph SC	Draw	Union Omaha
Our model	27%	27%	46%
Market	28%	25%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Omaha (rating 1427 vs 1585).
H2H favours Union Omaha: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Greenville Triumph SC	Union Omaha
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.1	2.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.5	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.1	2.8 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.50

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.52 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.65
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:38 +9’	3.20	3.50	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:26 +81’	3.52	3.65	1.87

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Greenville Triumph SC 1–1–4 Union Omaha

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 USA USL League One	Union Omaha	2-0 HT 0-0	Greenville Triumph SC
11/10/25 USA USL League One	Greenville Triumph SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Union Omaha
13/06/25 USA USL League One	Union Omaha	1-0 HT 1-0	Greenville Triumph SC
13/03/25 USA USL League One	Greenville Triumph SC	3-0 HT 2-0	Union Omaha
09/11/24 USA USL League One	Union Omaha	2-1 HT 1-1	Greenville Triumph SC
08/09/24 USA USL League One	Union Omaha	3-1 HT 1-1	Greenville Triumph SC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	28	18	4	6	50	30	58
2	Charlotte Independence	27	17	5	5	63	39	56
3	Forward Madison FC	27	15	6	6	50	26	51
4	One Knoxville SC	27	13	8	6	44	31	47
5	AC Boise	27	13	7	7	43	37	46
6	Chattanooga Red Wolves	26	13	4	9	47	38	43
7	Spokane Velocity FC	24	12	4	8	36	33	40
8	Fort Wayne FC	26	10	7	9	41	35	37
9	Corpus Christi FC	26	8	9	9	30	36	33
10	Antelope Valley Alta	28	8	8	12	34	40	32
11	Sarasota Paradise	26	8	6	12	33	39	30
12	Portland Hearts of Pine	27	7	9	11	39	46	30
13	Westchester SC	27	8	5	14	46	45	29
14	FC Naples	26	8	4	14	29	43	28
15	Greenville Triumph SC	26	6	5	15	29	48	23
16	New York Cosmos	26	6	4	16	32	52	22
17	Richmond Kickers	26	5	5	16	25	53	20

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Greenville Triumph SC	Union Omaha
Sarasota Paradise	0-6 L	1-1 D
Corpus Christi FC	0-1 L	2-1 W
Fort Wayne FC	1-3 L	2-0 W
Chattanooga Red Wolves	1-3 L	3-1 W
FC Naples	4-0 W	0-2 L
Spokane Velocity FC	1-2 L	3-1 W
One Knoxville SC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Charlotte Independence	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Union Omaha (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Greenville Triumph SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-4	0-6	1	2	L
16/09	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	3	10	L
13/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	1-2	1-3	9	7	L
06/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	6	2	L
30/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
23/08	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
16/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
13/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
09/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	2	9	L
02/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-3	3-3	11	2	D

Union Omaha

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
16/09	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	2-0	3-1	2	4	W
13/09	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
06/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
30/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
27/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	16	3	L
23/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	7	8	D
17/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	3-1	5-1	13	4	W
09/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	3-1	8	5	W
02/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Greenville Triumph SC vs Union Omaha?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Omaha win (46%). Probabilities: Greenville Triumph SC 27%, draw 26%, Union Omaha 46%.

How many goals are expected in Greenville Triumph SC vs Union Omaha?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Greenville Triumph SC 1.17 · Union Omaha 1.59), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Greenville Triumph SC vs Union Omaha?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.