Football · USA USL League One · 27/09, 01:00

Prediction: New York Cosmos vs Richmond Kickers

Team pages: New York Cosmos · Richmond Kickers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

New York Cosmos1.87

Richmond Kickers1.08

1X2

55% 24% 21%

New York Cosmos Draw Richmond Kickers

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

New York Cosmos 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWDDLWLL

Richmond Kickers 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLDLLDLL

Head-to-head

New York Cosmos 0–1 Richmond Kickers (1 last)

Richmond Kickers2-0New York Cosmos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New York Cosmos 1487 · Richmond Kickers 1426

	New York Cosmos	Draw	Richmond Kickers
Our model	55%	25%	21%
Market	55%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New York Cosmos (rating 1487 vs 1426).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York Cosmos	Richmond Kickers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	1.3 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.4 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/0/80%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.3	3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0	4.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.75

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.61▼	Bet365 1.61
X	3.50 → 3.75▲	Pinn 3.79
2	3.10 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.63 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
16:06 +2’	1.91	3.50	3.10
18:37 +10’	1.61▼	3.75▲	4.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:39 +128’	1.56	3.79	4.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · New York Cosmos 0–0–1 Richmond Kickers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/08/26 USA USL League One	Richmond Kickers	2-0 HT 1-0	New York Cosmos

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	28	18	4	6	50	30	58
2	Charlotte Independence	27	17	5	5	63	39	56
3	Forward Madison FC	27	15	6	6	50	26	51
4	One Knoxville SC	27	13	8	6	44	31	47
5	AC Boise	27	13	7	7	43	37	46
6	Chattanooga Red Wolves	26	13	4	9	47	38	43
7	Spokane Velocity FC	24	12	4	8	36	33	40
8	Fort Wayne FC	26	10	7	9	41	35	37
9	Corpus Christi FC	26	8	9	9	30	36	33
10	Antelope Valley Alta	28	8	8	12	34	40	32
11	Sarasota Paradise	26	8	6	12	33	39	30
12	Portland Hearts of Pine	27	7	9	11	39	46	30
13	Westchester SC	27	8	5	14	46	45	29
14	FC Naples	26	8	4	14	29	43	28
15	Greenville Triumph SC	26	6	5	15	29	48	23
16	New York Cosmos	26	6	4	16	32	52	22
17	Richmond Kickers	26	5	5	16	25	53	20

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York Cosmos	Richmond Kickers
Westchester SC	1-2 L	2-5 L
Fort Wayne FC	4-2 W	0-2 L
Union Omaha	1-1 D	1-5 L
Chattanooga Red Wolves	3-3 D	1-1 D
Antelope Valley Alta	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: New York Cosmos (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New York Cosmos

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
12/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	11	3	L
06/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	2-0	4-2	5	7	W
03/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	7	7	L
30/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-2	3-3	8	4	D
20/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
16/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
06/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
26/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	1	3	L

Richmond Kickers

LWWLDLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-2	1-2	3	8	L
17/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-5	2-5	8	4	L
13/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
03/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
30/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	8	7	L
23/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
17/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-3	1-5	1	4	L
06/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
02/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	3-2	6	8	W
26/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	9	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York Cosmos vs Richmond Kickers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New York Cosmos win (55%). Probabilities: New York Cosmos 55%, draw 24%, Richmond Kickers 21%.

How many goals are expected in New York Cosmos vs Richmond Kickers?

The model expects 2.95 goals (New York Cosmos 1.87 · Richmond Kickers 1.08), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in New York Cosmos vs Richmond Kickers?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.