Football · USA USL League One · 27/09, 01:00

Prediction: FC Naples vs Chattanooga Red Wolves

Team pages: FC Naples · Chattanooga Red Wolves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

FC Naples1.43

Chattanooga Red Wolves1.23

1X2

41% 28% 31%

FC Naples Draw Chattanooga Red Wolves

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Naples 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWLLDD

Chattanooga Red Wolves 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLDLWWDWD

Head-to-head

FC Naples 0–2–2 Chattanooga Red Wolves (4 last)

Chattanooga Red Wolves1-0FC Naples
FC Naples2-2Chattanooga Red Wolves
Chattanooga Red Wolves3-1FC Naples
FC Naples1-1Chattanooga Red Wolves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Naples 1465 · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1517

	FC Naples	Draw	Chattanooga Red Wolves
Our model	41%	28%	31%
Market	41%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chattanooga Red Wolves (rating 1465 vs 1517).
H2H favours Chattanooga Red Wolves: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Naples	Chattanooga Red Wolves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	50/0/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.3	2.5 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.30

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.23 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.37
2	2.25 → 2.80▲	Pinn 2.89

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.5% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:06 +1’	2.70	3.30	2.25
18:46 +1’	2.15▼	3.30	2.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:23 +144’	2.23	3.37	2.89

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Naples 0–2–2 Chattanooga Red Wolves

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 USA USL League One	Chattanooga Red Wolves	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Naples
15/06/25 USA USL League One	FC Naples	2-2 HT 2-2	Chattanooga Red Wolves
14/05/25 USA USL League One	Chattanooga Red Wolves	3-1 HT 1-1	FC Naples
09/03/25 USA USL League One	FC Naples	1-1 HT 0-0	Chattanooga Red Wolves

Standings · USA USL League One

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	28	18	4	6	50	30	58
2	Charlotte Independence	27	17	5	5	63	39	56
3	Forward Madison FC	27	15	6	6	50	26	51
4	One Knoxville SC	27	13	8	6	44	31	47
5	AC Boise	27	13	7	7	43	37	46
6	Chattanooga Red Wolves	26	13	4	9	47	38	43
7	Spokane Velocity FC	24	12	4	8	36	33	40
8	Fort Wayne FC	26	10	7	9	41	35	37
9	Corpus Christi FC	26	8	9	9	30	36	33
10	Antelope Valley Alta	28	8	8	12	34	40	32
11	Sarasota Paradise	26	8	6	12	33	39	30
12	Portland Hearts of Pine	27	7	9	11	39	46	30
13	Westchester SC	27	8	5	14	46	45	29
14	FC Naples	26	8	4	14	29	43	28
15	Greenville Triumph SC	26	6	5	15	29	48	23
16	New York Cosmos	26	6	4	16	32	52	22
17	Richmond Kickers	26	5	5	16	25	53	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Naples	Chattanooga Red Wolves
Fort Wayne FC	2-2 D	2-1 W
AC Boise	0-2 L	2-3 L
Greenville Triumph SC	0-4 L	3-1 W
Union Omaha	2-0 W	1-3 L
Westchester SC	2-3 L	1-0 W
Forward Madison FC	1-3 L	1-0 W
New York Cosmos	0-1 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Chattanooga Red Wolves (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Naples

LLWLWWLLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	2-0	2-2	3	8	D
12/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
06/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
30/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-4	5	3	L
27/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
23/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	2-1	6	5	W
16/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-3	2-3	5	4	L
06/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	8	W
26/07	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
09/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	4	4	L

Chattanooga Red Wolves

LWLDLWWDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
17/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	6	7	W
13/09	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	9	5	D
06/09	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-0	3-1	1	2	W
03/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
30/08	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	2-3	3	6	L
23/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	2-1	3-3	3	4	D
20/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	1-3	2-3	4	2	L
16/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
09/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-1	1-3	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Naples vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Naples win (41%). Probabilities: FC Naples 41%, draw 28%, Chattanooga Red Wolves 31%.

How many goals are expected in FC Naples vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?

The model expects 2.66 goals (FC Naples 1.43 · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1.23), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Naples vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.