Football · USA USL League One · 03/10, 21:00

Prediction: AC Boise vs Greenville Triumph SC

Team pages: AC Boise · Greenville Triumph SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

AC Boise2.2

Greenville Triumph SC1.09

1X2

62% 21% 17%

AC Boise Draw Greenville Triumph SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Boise 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDWWWDDL

Greenville Triumph SC 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDDLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

AC Boise 0–1 Greenville Triumph SC (1 last)

Greenville Triumph SC3-2AC Boise

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Boise 1531 · Greenville Triumph SC 1423

	AC Boise	Draw	Greenville Triumph SC
Our model	62%	21%	17%
Market	62%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AC Boise (rating 1531 vs 1423).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Boise	Greenville Triumph SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.4 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.4	2.3 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.20

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.45▼	Pinn 1.47
X	4.10 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.65 ★
2	5.00 → 5.25▲	Pinn 5.52

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:03 +41’	1.50	4.10	5.00
13:18 +10’	1.45▼	4.20▲	5.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:13 +97’	1.45	4.57	5.38
04:00 +97’	1.46▲	4.55▼	5.38
19:01 +47’	1.47▲	4.65▲	5.52▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Boise 0–0–1 Greenville Triumph SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/07/26 USA USL League One	Greenville Triumph SC	3-2 HT 2-2	AC Boise

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	29	19	4	6	53	31	61
2	Charlotte Independence	28	17	6	5	64	40	57
3	Forward Madison FC	28	15	6	7	50	27	51
4	One Knoxville SC	28	13	9	6	44	31	48
5	Spokane Velocity FC	26	14	4	8	38	33	46
6	AC Boise	28	13	7	8	44	39	46
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	28	13	4	11	47	40	43
8	Fort Wayne FC	27	10	8	9	42	36	38
9	Corpus Christi FC	27	9	9	9	32	37	36
10	Sarasota Paradise	27	9	6	12	37	40	33
11	Antelope Valley Alta	28	8	8	12	34	40	32
12	FC Naples	27	9	4	14	30	43	31
13	Westchester SC	28	8	6	14	46	45	30
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	28	7	9	12	40	50	30
15	New York Cosmos	27	7	4	16	35	54	25
16	Greenville Triumph SC	27	6	5	16	30	51	23
17	Richmond Kickers	27	5	5	17	27	56	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AC Boise	Greenville Triumph SC
Corpus Christi FC	1-2 L	0-1 L
Spokane Velocity FC	2-2 D	1-2 L
Charlotte Independence	1-1 D	0-1 L
FC Naples	2-0 W	4-0 W
Chattanooga Red Wolves	3-2 W	1-3 L
One Knoxville SC	2-2 D	1-1 D
Forward Madison FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: AC Boise (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Boise

LDWDWWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
21/09	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	2-0	2-2	3	3	D
17/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
12/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
06/09	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
30/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
23/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-2	2-2	8	3	D
09/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	7	7	W
02/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	12	6	D
30/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-2	2-3	6	5	L

Greenville Triumph SC

LDDLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
20/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-4	0-6	1	2	L
16/09	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	3	10	L
13/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	1-2	1-3	9	7	L
06/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	6	2	L
30/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
23/08	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
16/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
13/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
09/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	2	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Boise vs Greenville Triumph SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AC Boise win (62%). Probabilities: AC Boise 62%, draw 21%, Greenville Triumph SC 17%.

How many goals are expected in AC Boise vs Greenville Triumph SC?

The model expects 3.3 goals (AC Boise 2.2 · Greenville Triumph SC 1.09), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Boise vs Greenville Triumph SC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.