Football · USA USL League One · 17/09, 01:00
Prediction: Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Forward Madison FC
Team pages: Chattanooga Red Wolves · Forward Madison FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.04Total
Chattanooga Red Wolves1.52
Forward Madison FC1.52
1X2
Chattanooga Red Wolves
Draw
Forward Madison FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Chattanooga Red Wolves
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Forward Madison FC
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chattanooga Red Wolves
1–1–4
Forward Madison FC
(6 last)
- Forward Madison FC5-2Chattanooga Red Wolves
- Forward Madison FC2-1Chattanooga Red Wolves
- Chattanooga Red Wolves2-1Forward Madison FC
- Chattanooga Red Wolves1-1Forward Madison FC
- Forward Madison FC2-1Chattanooga Red Wolves
- Chattanooga Red Wolves1-3Forward Madison FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1484 · Forward Madison FC 1557
| Chattanooga Red Wolves | Draw | Forward Madison FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forward Madison FC (rating 1484 vs 1557).
- H2H favours Forward Madison FC: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chattanooga Red Wolves | Forward Madison FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 2 | 1.8 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.2 | 2.7 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.2 | 5.3 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1–1–4 Forward Madison FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/26 USA USL League One | Forward Madison FC | 5-2 HT 3-2 | Chattanooga Red Wolves |
| 12/10/25 USA USL League One | Forward Madison FC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Chattanooga Red Wolves |
| 07/08/25 USA USL League One | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Forward Madison FC |
| 01/06/25 USA USL Cup | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Forward Madison FC |
| 13/10/24 USA USL League One | Forward Madison FC | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Chattanooga Red Wolves |
| 08/09/24 USA USL League One | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Forward Madison FC |
Standings · USA USL League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 25 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 60 | 37 | 52 |
| 2 | Union Omaha | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 45 | 28 | 52 |
| 3 | Forward Madison FC | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 47 | 25 | 48 |
| 4 | AC Boise | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 40 | 34 | 44 |
| 5 | One Knoxville SC | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 40 | 27 | 44 |
| 6 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 45 | 37 | 39 |
| 7 | Spokane Velocity FC | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 28 | 39 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne FC | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 37 | 30 | 36 |
| 9 | Antelope Valley Alta | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 34 | 36 | 32 |
| 10 | Corpus Christi FC | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 29 | 36 | 30 |
| 11 | FC Naples | 25 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 27 | 41 | 27 |
| 12 | Sarasota Paradise | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 39 | 27 |
| 13 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 25 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 37 | 45 | 26 |
| 14 | Westchester SC | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 39 | 42 | 23 |
| 15 | Greenville Triumph SC | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 29 | 41 | 23 |
| 16 | New York Cosmos | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 31 | 50 | 22 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 22 | 46 | 20 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chattanooga Red Wolves | Forward Madison FC |
|---|---|---|
| Richmond Kickers | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Greenville Triumph SC | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Westchester SC | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| AC Boise | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Sarasota Paradise | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| One Knoxville SC | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Forward Madison FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chattanooga Red Wolves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
2-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 03/09 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 30/08 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
0-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
2-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 20/08 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
1-3 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/08 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 09/08 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 30/07 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
2-3 | 2-5 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 26/07 | One Knoxville SC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
Forward Madison FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 03/09 | One Knoxville SC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 17/08 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 13/08 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 09/08 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 02/08 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 30/07 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
3-2 | 5-2 | 8 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Forward Madison FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chattanooga Red Wolves win (37%). Probabilities: Chattanooga Red Wolves 37%, draw 27%, Forward Madison FC 37%.
How many goals are expected in Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Forward Madison FC?
The model expects 3.04 goals (Chattanooga Red Wolves 1.52 · Forward Madison FC 1.52), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Forward Madison FC?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.