Football · USA USL League One · 17/09, 01:30

Prediction: Fort Wayne FC vs One Knoxville SC

Team pages: Fort Wayne FC · One Knoxville SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Fort Wayne FC1.59

One Knoxville SC1.28

1X2

44% 27% 30%

Fort Wayne FC Draw One Knoxville SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Fort Wayne FC 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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One Knoxville SC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Fort Wayne FC 0–1 One Knoxville SC (1 last)

One Knoxville SC2-1Fort Wayne FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fort Wayne FC 1482 · One Knoxville SC 1502

	Fort Wayne FC	Draw	One Knoxville SC
Our model	43%	27%	30%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fort Wayne FC	One Knoxville SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.3	2.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.31 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.55
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:35 +38’	2.05	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:42 +30’	2.31	3.55	2.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fort Wayne FC 0–0–1 One Knoxville SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/07/26 USA USL League One	One Knoxville SC	2-1 HT 0-0	Fort Wayne FC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	25	16	4	5	60	37	52
2	Union Omaha	26	16	4	6	45	28	52
3	Forward Madison FC	25	14	6	5	47	25	48
4	AC Boise	25	13	5	7	40	34	44
5	One Knoxville SC	25	12	8	5	40	27	44
6	Chattanooga Red Wolves	24	12	3	9	45	37	39
7	Spokane Velocity FC	22	12	3	7	33	28	39
8	Fort Wayne FC	24	10	6	8	37	30	36
9	Antelope Valley Alta	26	8	8	10	34	36	32
10	Corpus Christi FC	25	7	9	9	29	36	30
11	FC Naples	25	8	3	14	27	41	27
12	Sarasota Paradise	25	7	6	12	27	39	27
13	Portland Hearts of Pine	25	6	8	11	37	45	26
14	Westchester SC	25	6	5	14	39	42	23
15	Greenville Triumph SC	24	6	5	13	29	41	23
16	New York Cosmos	25	6	4	15	31	50	22
17	Richmond Kickers	24	5	5	14	22	46	20

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fort Wayne FC	One Knoxville SC
Greenville Triumph SC	3-1 W	1-1 D
Portland Hearts of Pine	4-1 W	1-1 D
Chattanooga Red Wolves	1-2 L	0-1 L
Antelope Valley Alta	0-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Fort Wayne FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fort Wayne FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-1	3-1	2	7	W
06/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-2	2-4	9	7	L
03/09	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
30/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	2-0	4-1	1	6	W
16/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	1-2	10	6	L
09/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	13	5	L
02/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
26/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-3	10	6	L
19/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-0	3-0	1	5	W
16/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	6	6	L

One Knoxville SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	11	4	D
06/09	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
03/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
23/08	AC Boise USA USL League One	2-1	2-2	1	3	D
20/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
16/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
09/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	0	2	W
02/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
26/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
19/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-1	2-3	8	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fort Wayne FC vs One Knoxville SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fort Wayne FC win (44%). Probabilities: Fort Wayne FC 44%, draw 27%, One Knoxville SC 30%.

How many goals are expected in Fort Wayne FC vs One Knoxville SC?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Fort Wayne FC 1.59 · One Knoxville SC 1.28), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Fort Wayne FC vs One Knoxville SC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.