Football · USA USL League One · 06/09, 02:00
Prediction: Union Omaha vs Charlotte Independence
Team pages: Union Omaha · Charlotte Independence
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.56Total
Union Omaha2.08
Charlotte Independence1.48
1X2
Union Omaha
Draw
Charlotte Independence
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Union Omaha
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Charlotte Independence
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Union Omaha
3–2–1
Charlotte Independence
(6 last)
- Charlotte Independence2-0Union Omaha
- Union Omaha4-1Charlotte Independence
- Charlotte Independence1-2Union Omaha
- Charlotte Independence1-4Union Omaha
- Union Omaha0-0Charlotte Independence
- Union Omaha0-0Charlotte Independence
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union Omaha 1514 · Charlotte Independence 1545
| Union Omaha | Draw | Charlotte Independence | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| Market | 50% | 25% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Union Omaha: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union Omaha | Charlotte Independence | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.1 | 2.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.7 | 1.4 / 0 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 80/20/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 8 | 2.1 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.2 | 3.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Omaha 3–2–1 Charlotte Independence
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/26 USA USL League One | Charlotte Independence | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Union Omaha |
| 21/08/25 USA USL League One | Union Omaha | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Charlotte Independence |
| 13/07/25 USA USL League One | Charlotte Independence | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Union Omaha |
| 18/05/24 USA USL League One | Charlotte Independence | 1-4 HT 1-0 | Union Omaha |
| 20/04/24 USA USL League One | Union Omaha | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Charlotte Independence |
| 28/10/23 USA USL League One | Union Omaha | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Charlotte Independence |
Standings · USA USL League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 23 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 55 | 31 | 49 |
| 2 | Union Omaha | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 41 | 27 | 46 |
| 3 | Forward Madison FC | 23 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 44 | 24 | 44 |
| 4 | One Knoxville SC | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 38 | 26 | 40 |
| 5 | Spokane Velocity FC | 21 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 27 | 38 |
| 6 | AC Boise | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 33 | 38 |
| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 22 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 41 | 35 | 35 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne FC | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 33 |
| 9 | Antelope Valley Alta | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 33 | 34 | 32 |
| 10 | Corpus Christi FC | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 28 | 32 | 30 |
| 11 | FC Naples | 23 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 27 | 39 | 26 |
| 12 | Sarasota Paradise | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 25 | 37 | 25 |
| 13 | Westchester SC | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 35 | 23 |
| 14 | Greenville Triumph SC | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 35 | 23 |
| 15 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 44 | 23 |
| 16 | New York Cosmos | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 26 | 46 | 19 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 45 | 19 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Union Omaha | Charlotte Independence |
|---|---|---|
| Sarasota Paradise | 1-1 D | 3-1 W |
| Richmond Kickers | 5-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Chattanooga Red Wolves | 3-1 W | 2-4 L |
| Portland Hearts of Pine | 2-1 W | 3-2 W |
| Antelope Valley Alta | 3-1 W | 5-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 0 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union Omaha
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 27/08 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-2 | 16 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 17/08 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
3-1 | 5-1 | 13 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 23/07 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 19/07 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 02/07 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
0-1 | 3-1 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
Charlotte Independence
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
4-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 16/08 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 09/08 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 9 | W |
| 02/08 | One Knoxville SC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 23/07 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 06/07 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union Omaha vs Charlotte Independence?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Omaha win (50%). Probabilities: Union Omaha 50%, draw 24%, Charlotte Independence 26%.
How many goals are expected in Union Omaha vs Charlotte Independence?
The model expects 3.56 goals (Union Omaha 2.08 · Charlotte Independence 1.48), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Union Omaha vs Charlotte Independence?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.