Football · USA USL League One · 13/09, 01:00

Prediction: Greenville Triumph SC vs Fort Wayne FC

Team pages: Greenville Triumph SC · Fort Wayne FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Greenville Triumph SC1.62

Fort Wayne FC1.41

1X2

42% 26% 32%

Greenville Triumph SC Draw Fort Wayne FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Greenville Triumph SC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Fort Wayne FC 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Greenville Triumph SC 0–1 Fort Wayne FC (1 last)

Fort Wayne FC3-0Greenville Triumph SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Greenville Triumph SC 1460 · Fort Wayne FC 1459

	Greenville Triumph SC	Draw	Fort Wayne FC
Our model	41%	26%	32%
Market	42%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Greenville Triumph SC	Fort Wayne FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.3	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.7	2.6 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.50

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.18
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 2.94 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:30 +5’	2.15	3.50	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:42 +113’	2.18	3.41	2.94

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Greenville Triumph SC 0–0–1 Fort Wayne FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/07/26 USA USL League One	Fort Wayne FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Greenville Triumph SC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	24	15	4	5	55	33	49
2	Union Omaha	25	15	4	6	43	27	49
3	Forward Madison FC	24	14	5	5	46	24	47
4	AC Boise	25	13	5	7	40	34	44
5	One Knoxville SC	25	12	8	5	40	27	44
6	Spokane Velocity FC	22	12	3	7	33	28	39
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	23	12	2	9	44	36	38
8	Fort Wayne FC	23	9	6	8	34	29	33
9	Antelope Valley Alta	26	8	8	10	34	36	32
10	Corpus Christi FC	24	7	9	8	28	34	30
11	FC Naples	25	8	3	14	27	41	27
12	Sarasota Paradise	24	7	5	12	26	38	26
13	Portland Hearts of Pine	25	6	8	11	37	45	26
14	Westchester SC	24	6	5	13	35	37	23
15	Greenville Triumph SC	23	6	5	12	28	38	23
16	New York Cosmos	25	6	4	15	31	50	22
17	Richmond Kickers	23	5	4	14	21	45	19

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Greenville Triumph SC	Fort Wayne FC
Chattanooga Red Wolves	1-3 L	1-2 L
Spokane Velocity FC	1-2 L	1-3 L
One Knoxville SC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Portland Hearts of Pine	3-3 D	4-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Greenville Triumph SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	6	2	L
30/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
23/08	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
16/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
13/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
09/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	2	9	L
02/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-3	3-3	11	2	D
30/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	2-2	3-2	5	5	W
26/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	7	7	L
19/07	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-2	0-3	7	5	L

Fort Wayne FC

WLWLLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-2	2-4	9	7	L
03/09	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
30/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	2-0	4-1	1	6	W
16/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	1-2	10	6	L
09/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	13	5	L
02/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
26/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-3	10	6	L
19/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-0	3-0	1	5	W
16/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	6	6	L
05/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	2-0	3-0	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Greenville Triumph SC vs Fort Wayne FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Greenville Triumph SC win (42%). Probabilities: Greenville Triumph SC 42%, draw 26%, Fort Wayne FC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Greenville Triumph SC vs Fort Wayne FC?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Greenville Triumph SC 1.62 · Fort Wayne FC 1.41), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Greenville Triumph SC vs Fort Wayne FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.