Football · USA USL League One · 13/09, 00:00

Prediction: Richmond Kickers vs Chattanooga Red Wolves

Team pages: Richmond Kickers · Chattanooga Red Wolves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Richmond Kickers1.61

Chattanooga Red Wolves1.77

1X2

34% 25% 41%

Richmond Kickers Draw Chattanooga Red Wolves

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Richmond Kickers 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWLDLL

Chattanooga Red Wolves 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLWLDLWW

Head-to-head

Richmond Kickers 1–1–4 Chattanooga Red Wolves (6 last)

Chattanooga Red Wolves5-0Richmond Kickers
Richmond Kickers0-2Chattanooga Red Wolves
Chattanooga Red Wolves0-0Richmond Kickers
Richmond Kickers2-1Chattanooga Red Wolves
Chattanooga Red Wolves3-1Richmond Kickers
Chattanooga Red Wolves1-0Richmond Kickers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Richmond Kickers 1445 · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1528

	Richmond Kickers	Draw	Chattanooga Red Wolves
Our model	34%	25%	41%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chattanooga Red Wolves (rating 1445 vs 1528).
H2H favours Chattanooga Red Wolves: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Richmond Kickers	Chattanooga Red Wolves
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.1	2.1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.2	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.3	1.7 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.50

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 2.63▼	Bet365 2.63
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.76 ★
2	2.00 → 2.20▲	Pinn 2.34

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:17 +6’	3.00	3.50	2.00
17:41 +11’	2.63▼	3.50	2.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:22 +1’	2.45	3.76	2.39
15:28 +144’	2.51▲	3.76	2.34▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Richmond Kickers 1–1–4 Chattanooga Red Wolves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/05/26 USA USL League One	Chattanooga Red Wolves	5-0 HT 2-0	Richmond Kickers
13/07/25 USA USL League One	Richmond Kickers	0-2 HT 0-0	Chattanooga Red Wolves
11/05/25 USA USL League One	Chattanooga Red Wolves	0-0 HT 0-0	Richmond Kickers
20/10/24 USA USL League One	Richmond Kickers	2-1 HT 1-1	Chattanooga Red Wolves
14/07/24 USA USL League One	Chattanooga Red Wolves	3-1 HT 2-1	Richmond Kickers
12/05/24 USA USL Cup	Chattanooga Red Wolves	1-0 HT 0-0	Richmond Kickers

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	24	15	4	5	55	33	49
2	Union Omaha	25	15	4	6	43	27	49
3	Forward Madison FC	24	14	5	5	46	24	47
4	One Knoxville SC	24	12	7	5	40	27	43
5	AC Boise	24	12	5	7	38	33	41
6	Spokane Velocity FC	22	12	3	7	33	28	39
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	23	12	2	9	44	36	38
8	Fort Wayne FC	23	9	6	8	34	29	33
9	Antelope Valley Alta	26	8	8	10	34	36	32
10	Corpus Christi FC	24	7	9	8	28	34	30
11	FC Naples	24	8	2	14	27	41	26
12	Sarasota Paradise	24	7	5	12	26	38	26
13	Portland Hearts of Pine	25	6	8	11	37	45	26
14	Westchester SC	24	6	5	13	35	37	23
15	Greenville Triumph SC	23	6	5	12	28	38	23
16	New York Cosmos	24	6	4	14	30	48	22
17	Richmond Kickers	23	5	4	14	21	45	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Richmond Kickers	Chattanooga Red Wolves
Fort Wayne FC	0-2 L	2-1 W
Forward Madison FC	1-2 L	2-5 L
Union Omaha	1-5 L	1-3 L
New York Cosmos	2-0 W	3-3 D
Charlotte Independence	1-3 L	4-2 W
Sarasota Paradise	0-0 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Richmond Kickers

DLLLWWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
30/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	8	7	L
23/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
17/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-3	1-5	1	4	L
06/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
02/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	3-2	6	8	W
26/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	9	0	L
19/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
16/07	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
04/07	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	2	D

Chattanooga Red Wolves

WWLLWLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-0	3-1	1	2	W
03/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
30/08	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	2-3	3	6	L
23/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	2-1	3-3	3	4	D
20/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	1-3	2-3	4	2	L
16/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
09/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-1	1-3	4	5	L
30/07	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	2-3	2-5	5	5	L
26/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
19/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	4-2	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Richmond Kickers vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chattanooga Red Wolves win (41%). Probabilities: Richmond Kickers 34%, draw 25%, Chattanooga Red Wolves 41%.

How many goals are expected in Richmond Kickers vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Richmond Kickers 1.61 · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1.77), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Richmond Kickers vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.