Football · USA USL League One · 13/09, 02:30

Prediction: Corpus Christi FC vs Union Omaha

Team pages: Corpus Christi FC · Union Omaha

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Corpus Christi FC1.02

Union Omaha1.74

1X2

22% 25% 53%

Corpus Christi FC Draw Union Omaha

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Corpus Christi FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Union Omaha 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Corpus Christi FC 0–1 Union Omaha (1 last)

Union Omaha2-1Corpus Christi FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Corpus Christi FC 1508 · Union Omaha 1547

	Corpus Christi FC	Draw	Union Omaha
Our model	21%	26%	53%
Market	22%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Corpus Christi FC	Union Omaha
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	2.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 4.3	2.9 / 8.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.70

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.88

2 (-0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.91 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
20:22 +21’	4.10	3.70	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:37 +6’	3.43	3.38	1.88
02:31 +53’	3.51▲	3.46▲	1.91▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Corpus Christi FC 0–0–1 Union Omaha

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 USA USL League One	Union Omaha	2-1 HT 1-0	Corpus Christi FC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	24	15	4	5	55	33	49
2	Union Omaha	25	15	4	6	43	27	49
3	Forward Madison FC	24	14	5	5	46	24	47
4	One Knoxville SC	24	12	7	5	40	27	43
5	AC Boise	24	12	5	7	38	33	41
6	Spokane Velocity FC	22	12	3	7	33	28	39
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	23	12	2	9	44	36	38
8	Fort Wayne FC	23	9	6	8	34	29	33
9	Antelope Valley Alta	26	8	8	10	34	36	32
10	Corpus Christi FC	24	7	9	8	28	34	30
11	FC Naples	24	8	2	14	27	41	26
12	Sarasota Paradise	24	7	5	12	26	38	26
13	Portland Hearts of Pine	25	6	8	11	37	45	26
14	Westchester SC	24	6	5	13	35	37	23
15	Greenville Triumph SC	23	6	5	12	28	38	23
16	New York Cosmos	24	6	4	14	30	48	22
17	Richmond Kickers	23	5	4	14	21	45	19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Corpus Christi FC	Union Omaha
Westchester SC	2-2 D	2-2 D
New York Cosmos	0-2 L	1-1 D
Portland Hearts of Pine	2-0 W	2-1 W
Chattanooga Red Wolves	2-1 W	3-1 W
Charlotte Independence	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Union Omaha (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Corpus Christi FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-2	4	7	L
23/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-2	2-2	11	5	D
20/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
16/08	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-1	3-2	2	5	W
09/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
02/08	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
26/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
19/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
01/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-2	1-2	4	5	L

Union Omaha

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
30/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
27/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	16	3	L
23/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	7	8	D
17/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	3-1	5-1	13	4	W
09/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	3-1	8	5	W
02/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
23/07	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	2-1	2-1	4	6	W
19/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
02/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	3-1	12	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Corpus Christi FC vs Union Omaha?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Omaha win (53%). Probabilities: Corpus Christi FC 22%, draw 25%, Union Omaha 53%.

How many goals are expected in Corpus Christi FC vs Union Omaha?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Corpus Christi FC 1.02 · Union Omaha 1.74), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Corpus Christi FC vs Union Omaha?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.