Football · USA USL League One · 14/09, 00:00

Prediction: Portland Hearts of Pine vs Antelope Valley Alta

Team pages: Portland Hearts of Pine · Antelope Valley Alta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Portland Hearts of Pine1.72

Antelope Valley Alta1.24

1X2

48% 25% 27%

Portland Hearts of Pine Draw Antelope Valley Alta

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Portland Hearts of Pine 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLDDLLW

Antelope Valley Alta 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWLLLL

Head-to-head

Portland Hearts of Pine 0–3–1 Antelope Valley Alta (4 last)

Antelope Valley Alta0-0Portland Hearts of Pine
Portland Hearts of Pine2-2Antelope Valley Alta
Portland Hearts of Pine0-2Antelope Valley Alta
Antelope Valley Alta1-1Portland Hearts of Pine

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portland Hearts of Pine 1439 · Antelope Valley Alta 1442

	Portland Hearts of Pine	Draw	Antelope Valley Alta
Our model	48%	26%	26%
Market	49%	24%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portland Hearts of Pine	Antelope Valley Alta
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.1	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4	1.9 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.70

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 1.93 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:06 +3’	1.85	3.70	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:26 +43’	1.83	3.79	3.55
08:01 +52’	1.88▲	3.73▼	3.42▼
19:59 +20’	1.88▲	3.69▼	3.43▲
00:04 +36’	1.93▲	3.63▼	3.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Hearts of Pine 0–3–1 Antelope Valley Alta

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 USA USL League One	Antelope Valley Alta	0-0 HT 0-0	Portland Hearts of Pine
25/10/25 USA USL League One	Portland Hearts of Pine	2-2 HT 1-1	Antelope Valley Alta
03/07/25 USA USL League One	Portland Hearts of Pine	0-2 HT 0-1	Antelope Valley Alta
22/06/25 USA USL League One	Antelope Valley Alta	1-1 HT 1-0	Portland Hearts of Pine

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	24	15	4	5	55	33	49
2	Union Omaha	25	15	4	6	43	27	49
3	Forward Madison FC	25	14	6	5	47	25	48
4	AC Boise	25	13	5	7	40	34	44
5	One Knoxville SC	25	12	8	5	40	27	44
6	Chattanooga Red Wolves	24	12	3	9	45	37	39
7	Spokane Velocity FC	22	12	3	7	33	28	39
8	Fort Wayne FC	24	10	6	8	37	30	36
9	Antelope Valley Alta	26	8	8	10	34	36	32
10	Corpus Christi FC	24	7	9	8	28	34	30
11	FC Naples	25	8	3	14	27	41	27
12	Sarasota Paradise	25	7	6	12	27	39	27
13	Portland Hearts of Pine	25	6	8	11	37	45	26
14	Westchester SC	24	6	5	13	35	37	23
15	Greenville Triumph SC	24	6	5	13	29	41	23
16	New York Cosmos	25	6	4	15	31	50	22
17	Richmond Kickers	24	5	5	14	22	46	20

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portland Hearts of Pine	Antelope Valley Alta
Westchester SC	2-1 W	0-0 D
Charlotte Independence	2-3 L	0-5 L
Fort Wayne FC	1-4 L	3-0 W
Richmond Kickers	1-1 D	2-3 L
One Knoxville SC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Portland Hearts of Pine (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portland Hearts of Pine

LLDLLDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
03/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	2-3	1	4	L
30/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-4	5	6	L
23/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
20/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
17/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
09/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
02/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	3-1	3-3	3	2	D
23/07	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
18/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	2	3	L

Antelope Valley Alta

LWDLLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
29/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-4	0-5	2	4	L
23/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
16/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
09/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
06/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	9	8	L
02/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-1	2-3	5	8	L
26/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
19/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-1	3-2	5	0	W
16/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portland Hearts of Pine vs Antelope Valley Alta?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portland Hearts of Pine win (48%). Probabilities: Portland Hearts of Pine 48%, draw 25%, Antelope Valley Alta 27%.

How many goals are expected in Portland Hearts of Pine vs Antelope Valley Alta?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Portland Hearts of Pine 1.72 · Antelope Valley Alta 1.24), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Portland Hearts of Pine vs Antelope Valley Alta?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.