Football · USA USL League One · 13/09, 00:00

Prediction: Forward Madison FC vs Sarasota Paradise

Team pages: Forward Madison FC · Sarasota Paradise

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Forward Madison FC1.93

Sarasota Paradise1.15

1X2

54% 24% 21%

Forward Madison FC Draw Sarasota Paradise

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Forward Madison FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Sarasota Paradise 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Forward Madison FC 1–0 Sarasota Paradise (1 last)

Sarasota Paradise1-3Forward Madison FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Forward Madison FC 1583 · Sarasota Paradise 1479

	Forward Madison FC	Draw	Sarasota Paradise
Our model	54%	24%	21%
Market	54%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forward Madison FC (rating 1583 vs 1479).
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Forward Madison FC	Sarasota Paradise
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.8	2.9 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.5	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.70

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.75 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:09 +19’	1.65	3.70	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:12 +11’	1.73	3.56	3.95
15:23 +149’	1.75▲	3.65▲	4.06▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Forward Madison FC 1–0–0 Sarasota Paradise

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 USA USL League One	Sarasota Paradise	1-3 HT 1-1	Forward Madison FC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	24	15	4	5	55	33	49
2	Union Omaha	25	15	4	6	43	27	49
3	Forward Madison FC	24	14	5	5	46	24	47
4	One Knoxville SC	24	12	7	5	40	27	43
5	AC Boise	24	12	5	7	38	33	41
6	Spokane Velocity FC	22	12	3	7	33	28	39
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	23	12	2	9	44	36	38
8	Fort Wayne FC	23	9	6	8	34	29	33
9	Antelope Valley Alta	26	8	8	10	34	36	32
10	Corpus Christi FC	24	7	9	8	28	34	30
11	FC Naples	24	8	2	14	27	41	26
12	Sarasota Paradise	24	7	5	12	26	38	26
13	Portland Hearts of Pine	25	6	8	11	37	45	26
14	Westchester SC	24	6	5	13	35	37	23
15	Greenville Triumph SC	23	6	5	12	28	38	23
16	New York Cosmos	24	6	4	14	30	48	22
17	Richmond Kickers	23	5	4	14	21	45	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Forward Madison FC	Sarasota Paradise
Corpus Christi FC	2-0 W	1-4 L
One Knoxville SC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Richmond Kickers	2-1 W	0-0 D
Charlotte Independence	1-1 D	1-3 L
Greenville Triumph SC	1-1 D	0-0 D
Chattanooga Red Wolves	5-2 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Forward Madison FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Forward Madison FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
03/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
30/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
23/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
17/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
13/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	11	4	D
09/08	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
02/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
30/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	3-2	5-2	8	5	W
26/07	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-0	3-1	3	3	W

Sarasota Paradise

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
03/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
23/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	5	8	D
20/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	3-1	3-2	8	2	W
16/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-3	1-3	5	7	L
09/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	14	2	L
09/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
04/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
21/06	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-4	5	6	L
14/06	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Forward Madison FC vs Sarasota Paradise?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Forward Madison FC win (54%). Probabilities: Forward Madison FC 54%, draw 24%, Sarasota Paradise 21%.

How many goals are expected in Forward Madison FC vs Sarasota Paradise?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Forward Madison FC 1.93 · Sarasota Paradise 1.15), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Forward Madison FC vs Sarasota Paradise?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.