Football · USA USL League One · 06/09, 01:30

Prediction: Fort Wayne FC vs New York Cosmos

Team pages: Fort Wayne FC · New York Cosmos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Fort Wayne FC1.75

New York Cosmos1.02

1X2

54% 25% 21%

Fort Wayne FC Draw New York Cosmos

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Fort Wayne FC 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLLLWW

New York Cosmos 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLLWWDDL

Head-to-head

Fort Wayne FC 0–1 New York Cosmos (1 last)

New York Cosmos2-0Fort Wayne FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fort Wayne FC 1480 · New York Cosmos 1493

	Fort Wayne FC	Draw	New York Cosmos
Our model	53%	26%	21%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fort Wayne FC	New York Cosmos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.1	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.7	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.2	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.80

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 06:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.65▲	Pinn 1.67
X	3.90 → 3.80▼	Pinn 3.87
2	4.33 → 4.10▼	Pinn 4.24 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:45 +9’	1.60	3.90	4.33
22:53 +6’	1.73▲	3.75▼	3.70▼
03:34 +7’	1.73	3.60▼	3.90▲
06:39 +14’	1.65▼	3.80▲	4.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:59 +1’	1.67	3.84	4.20
03:40	1.67▲	3.87▲	4.24▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Fort Wayne FC 0–0–1 New York Cosmos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 USA USL League One	New York Cosmos	2-0 HT 1-0	Fort Wayne FC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	23	15	4	4	55	31	49
2	Union Omaha	24	14	4	6	41	27	46
3	Forward Madison FC	23	13	5	5	44	24	44
4	One Knoxville SC	23	11	7	5	38	26	40
5	Spokane Velocity FC	21	12	2	7	32	27	38
6	AC Boise	23	11	5	7	36	33	38
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	22	11	2	9	41	35	35
8	Fort Wayne FC	22	9	6	7	32	25	33
9	Antelope Valley Alta	25	8	8	9	33	34	32
10	Corpus Christi FC	23	7	9	7	28	32	30
11	FC Naples	23	8	2	13	27	39	26
12	Sarasota Paradise	23	7	4	12	25	37	25
13	Westchester SC	23	6	5	12	34	35	23
14	Greenville Triumph SC	22	6	5	11	27	35	23
15	Portland Hearts of Pine	24	5	8	11	35	44	23
16	New York Cosmos	23	5	4	14	26	46	19
17	Richmond Kickers	23	5	4	14	21	45	19

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fort Wayne FC	New York Cosmos
Richmond Kickers	2-0 W	0-2 L
Chattanooga Red Wolves	1-2 L	3-3 D
Antelope Valley Alta	0-3 L	1-0 W
Union Omaha	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: New York Cosmos (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fort Wayne FC

WWLWLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
30/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	2-0	4-1	1	6	W
16/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	1-2	10	6	L
09/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	13	5	L
02/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
26/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-3	10	6	L
19/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-0	3-0	1	5	W
16/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	6	6	L
05/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
21/06	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-0	2-0	3	6	W

New York Cosmos

WDLLLWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	7	7	L
30/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-2	3-3	8	4	D
20/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
16/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
06/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
26/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	1	3	L
23/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
19/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
09/07	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fort Wayne FC vs New York Cosmos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fort Wayne FC win (54%). Probabilities: Fort Wayne FC 54%, draw 25%, New York Cosmos 21%.

How many goals are expected in Fort Wayne FC vs New York Cosmos?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Fort Wayne FC 1.75 · New York Cosmos 1.02), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Fort Wayne FC vs New York Cosmos?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.