Football · USA USL League One · 12/09, 03:00

Prediction: AC Boise vs New York Cosmos

Team pages: AC Boise · New York Cosmos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

AC Boise1.93

New York Cosmos1.11

1X2

56% 23% 21%

AC Boise Draw New York Cosmos

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Boise 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWLDWDWW

New York Cosmos 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLWWDDLW

Head-to-head

AC Boise 1–0 New York Cosmos (1 last)

New York Cosmos1-2AC Boise

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Boise 1564 · New York Cosmos 1504

	AC Boise	Draw	New York Cosmos
Our model	55%	24%	20%
Market	56%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AC Boise (rating 1564 vs 1504).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Boise	New York Cosmos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.3	2.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	5.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.10

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.60▲	Pinn 1.63
X	4.20 → 4.10▼	Bet365 4.10
2	5.00 → 4.20▼	Pinn 4.38 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:00 +53’	1.48	4.20	5.00
14:36 +6’	1.60▲	4.10▼	4.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:23 +79’	1.63	3.98	4.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Boise 1–0–0 New York Cosmos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/07/26 USA USL League One	New York Cosmos	1-2 HT 0-0	AC Boise

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	24	15	4	5	55	33	49
2	Union Omaha	25	15	4	6	43	27	49
3	Forward Madison FC	24	14	5	5	46	24	47
4	One Knoxville SC	24	12	7	5	40	27	43
5	AC Boise	24	12	5	7	38	33	41
6	Spokane Velocity FC	22	12	3	7	33	28	39
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	23	12	2	9	44	36	38
8	Fort Wayne FC	23	9	6	8	34	29	33
9	Antelope Valley Alta	26	8	8	10	34	36	32
10	Corpus Christi FC	24	7	9	8	28	34	30
11	FC Naples	24	8	2	14	27	41	26
12	Sarasota Paradise	24	7	5	12	26	38	26
13	Portland Hearts of Pine	25	6	8	11	37	45	26
14	Westchester SC	24	6	5	13	35	37	23
15	Greenville Triumph SC	23	6	5	12	28	38	23
16	New York Cosmos	24	6	4	14	30	48	22
17	Richmond Kickers	23	5	4	14	21	45	19

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AC Boise	New York Cosmos
Chattanooga Red Wolves	3-2 W	3-3 D
Corpus Christi FC	0-0 D	2-0 W
Westchester SC	1-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: AC Boise (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Boise

LWWWLDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
30/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
23/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-2	2-2	8	3	D
09/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	7	7	W
02/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
30/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-2	2-3	6	5	L
26/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	3	3	W
18/07	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
06/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
03/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-1	1-2	10	5	L

New York Cosmos

DLLLWWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	2-0	4-2	5	7	W
03/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	7	7	L
30/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-2	3-3	8	4	D
20/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
16/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
06/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
26/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	1	3	L
23/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
19/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Boise vs New York Cosmos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AC Boise win (56%). Probabilities: AC Boise 56%, draw 23%, New York Cosmos 21%.

How many goals are expected in AC Boise vs New York Cosmos?

The model expects 3.03 goals (AC Boise 1.93 · New York Cosmos 1.11), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Boise vs New York Cosmos?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.