Football · USA USL League One · 16/09, 19:00
Prediction: Union Omaha vs Spokane Velocity FC
Team pages: Union Omaha · Spokane Velocity FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Union Omaha1.63
Spokane Velocity FC1.25
1X2
Union Omaha
Draw
Spokane Velocity FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Union Omaha
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Spokane Velocity FC
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Union Omaha
2–2–2
Spokane Velocity FC
(6 last)
- Spokane Velocity FC1-0Union Omaha
- Union Omaha2-2Spokane Velocity FC
- Union Omaha2-2Spokane Velocity FC
- Spokane Velocity FC2-1Union Omaha
- Union Omaha3-0Spokane Velocity FC
- Union Omaha4-0Spokane Velocity FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union Omaha 1554 · Spokane Velocity FC 1558
| Union Omaha | Draw | Spokane Velocity FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Market | 46% | 25% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union Omaha | Spokane Velocity FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 7.6 | 2.5 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.4 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Omaha 2–2–2 Spokane Velocity FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 USA USL League One | Spokane Velocity FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Union Omaha |
| 26/10/25 USA USL League One | Union Omaha | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Spokane Velocity FC |
| 18/09/25 USA USL League One | Union Omaha | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Spokane Velocity FC |
| 03/08/25 USA USL League One | Spokane Velocity FC | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Union Omaha |
| 17/11/24 USA USL League One | Union Omaha | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Spokane Velocity FC |
| 02/10/24 USA USL League One | Union Omaha | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Spokane Velocity FC |
Standings · USA USL League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 25 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 60 | 37 | 52 |
| 2 | Union Omaha | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 45 | 28 | 52 |
| 3 | Forward Madison FC | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 47 | 25 | 48 |
| 4 | AC Boise | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 40 | 34 | 44 |
| 5 | One Knoxville SC | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 40 | 27 | 44 |
| 6 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 24 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 45 | 37 | 39 |
| 7 | Spokane Velocity FC | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 28 | 39 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne FC | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 37 | 30 | 36 |
| 9 | Antelope Valley Alta | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 37 | 32 |
| 10 | Corpus Christi FC | 25 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 29 | 36 | 30 |
| 11 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 38 | 45 | 29 |
| 12 | FC Naples | 25 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 27 | 41 | 27 |
| 13 | Sarasota Paradise | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 39 | 27 |
| 14 | Westchester SC | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 39 | 42 | 23 |
| 15 | Greenville Triumph SC | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 29 | 41 | 23 |
| 16 | New York Cosmos | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 31 | 50 | 22 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 22 | 46 | 20 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Union Omaha | Spokane Velocity FC |
|---|---|---|
| Corpus Christi FC | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Charlotte Independence | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Sarasota Paradise | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Richmond Kickers | 5-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Fort Wayne FC | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Westchester SC | 2-2 D | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 0 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union Omaha
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 27/08 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-2 | 16 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 17/08 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
3-1 | 5-1 | 13 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 23/07 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 19/07 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
Spokane Velocity FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
2-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 26/07 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 23/07 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 19/07 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/07 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 25/06 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union Omaha vs Spokane Velocity FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Omaha win (45%). Probabilities: Union Omaha 45%, draw 26%, Spokane Velocity FC 29%.
How many goals are expected in Union Omaha vs Spokane Velocity FC?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Union Omaha 1.63 · Spokane Velocity FC 1.25), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Union Omaha vs Spokane Velocity FC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.