Football · USA USL League One · 03/09, 02:00

Prediction: Forward Madison FC vs One Knoxville SC

Team pages: Forward Madison FC · One Knoxville SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Forward Madison FC1.63

One Knoxville SC1.32

1X2

44% 26% 30%

Forward Madison FC Draw One Knoxville SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Forward Madison FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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One Knoxville SC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Forward Madison FC 2–4–0 One Knoxville SC (6 last)

One Knoxville SC1-2Forward Madison FC
Forward Madison FC2-2One Knoxville SC
Forward Madison FC1-0One Knoxville SC
One Knoxville SC1-1Forward Madison FC
Forward Madison FC0-0One Knoxville SC
One Knoxville SC1-1Forward Madison FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Forward Madison FC 1583 · One Knoxville SC 1501

	Forward Madison FC	Draw	One Knoxville SC
Our model	44%	26%	30%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forward Madison FC (rating 1583 vs 1501).
H2H favours Forward Madison FC: 2-4-0.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Forward Madison FC	One Knoxville SC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.9	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.3	2.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.5	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.19 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.48
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:03 +13’	2.05	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:16	2.19	3.48	2.89

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Forward Madison FC 2–4–0 One Knoxville SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 USA USL League One	One Knoxville SC	1-2 HT 1-2	Forward Madison FC
10/08/25 USA USL League One	Forward Madison FC	2-2 HT 0-1	One Knoxville SC
29/06/25 USA USL Cup	Forward Madison FC	1-0 HT 1-0	One Knoxville SC
10/05/25 USA USL League One	One Knoxville SC	1-1 HT 0-0	Forward Madison FC
20/10/24 USA USL League One	Forward Madison FC	0-0 HT 0-0	One Knoxville SC
02/10/24 USA USL League One	One Knoxville SC	1-1 HT 0-1	Forward Madison FC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	22	14	4	4	52	29	46
2	Union Omaha	24	14	4	6	41	27	46
3	Forward Madison FC	22	13	4	5	43	23	43
4	One Knoxville SC	22	11	6	5	37	25	39
5	Spokane Velocity FC	21	12	2	7	32	27	38
6	AC Boise	23	11	5	7	36	33	38
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	21	10	2	9	40	35	32
8	Antelope Valley Alta	25	8	8	9	33	34	32
9	Fort Wayne FC	21	8	6	7	30	25	30
10	Corpus Christi FC	23	7	9	7	28	32	30
11	FC Naples	23	8	2	13	27	39	26
12	Westchester SC	22	6	5	11	34	34	23
13	Greenville Triumph SC	22	6	5	11	27	35	23
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	23	5	8	10	33	41	23
15	Sarasota Paradise	22	6	4	12	23	36	22
16	New York Cosmos	22	5	4	13	25	44	19
17	Richmond Kickers	22	5	4	13	21	43	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Forward Madison FC	One Knoxville SC
Charlotte Independence	1-1 D	1-3 L
Portland Hearts of Pine	2-1 W	1-1 D
Greenville Triumph SC	1-1 D	1-1 D
AC Boise	1-2 L	2-2 D
Chattanooga Red Wolves	5-2 W	0-1 L
Spokane Velocity FC	1-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Forward Madison FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Forward Madison FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
23/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
17/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
13/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	11	4	D
09/08	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
02/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
30/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	3-2	5-2	8	5	W
26/07	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-0	3-1	3	3	W
16/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-0	4-0	9	3	W
02/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	2	5	W

One Knoxville SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	AC Boise USA USL League One	2-1	2-2	1	3	D
20/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
16/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
09/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	0	2	W
02/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
26/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
19/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-1	2-3	8	0	L
16/07	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	9	6	W
03/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
21/06	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	2-0	4-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Forward Madison FC vs One Knoxville SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Forward Madison FC win (44%). Probabilities: Forward Madison FC 44%, draw 26%, One Knoxville SC 30%.

How many goals are expected in Forward Madison FC vs One Knoxville SC?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Forward Madison FC 1.63 · One Knoxville SC 1.32), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Forward Madison FC vs One Knoxville SC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.