Football · USA USL League One · 06/09, 04:30

Prediction: Antelope Valley Alta vs One Knoxville SC

Team pages: Antelope Valley Alta · One Knoxville SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Antelope Valley Alta1.25

One Knoxville SC1.55

1X2

30% 26% 44%

Antelope Valley Alta Draw One Knoxville SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Antelope Valley Alta 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLWDLLWLLL

One Knoxville SC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWDDDD

Head-to-head

Antelope Valley Alta 1–2 One Knoxville SC (3 last)

One Knoxville SC2-3Antelope Valley Alta
Antelope Valley Alta1-2One Knoxville SC
One Knoxville SC3-1Antelope Valley Alta

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Antelope Valley Alta 1446 · One Knoxville SC 1524

	Antelope Valley Alta	Draw	One Knoxville SC
Our model	29%	27%	43%
Market	30%	26%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours One Knoxville SC (rating 1446 vs 1524).
H2H favours One Knoxville SC: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Antelope Valley Alta	One Knoxville SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	2.4 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.50

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.01
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.64 ★
2	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.06

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:57 +1’	3.00	3.50	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:02	3.01	3.64	2.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Antelope Valley Alta 1–0–2 One Knoxville SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/07/26 USA USL League One	One Knoxville SC	2-3 HT 1-1	Antelope Valley Alta
14/09/25 USA USL League One	Antelope Valley Alta	1-2 HT 1-1	One Knoxville SC
17/07/25 USA USL League One	One Knoxville SC	3-1 HT 1-0	Antelope Valley Alta

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	23	15	4	4	55	31	49
2	Union Omaha	24	14	4	6	41	27	46
3	Forward Madison FC	23	13	5	5	44	24	44
4	One Knoxville SC	23	11	7	5	38	26	40
5	Spokane Velocity FC	21	12	2	7	32	27	38
6	AC Boise	23	11	5	7	36	33	38
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	22	11	2	9	41	35	35
8	Fort Wayne FC	22	9	6	7	32	25	33
9	Antelope Valley Alta	25	8	8	9	33	34	32
10	Corpus Christi FC	23	7	9	7	28	32	30
11	FC Naples	23	8	2	13	27	39	26
12	Sarasota Paradise	23	7	4	12	25	37	25
13	Westchester SC	23	6	5	12	34	35	23
14	Greenville Triumph SC	22	6	5	11	27	35	23
15	Portland Hearts of Pine	24	5	8	11	35	44	23
16	New York Cosmos	23	5	4	14	26	46	19
17	Richmond Kickers	23	5	4	14	21	45	19

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Antelope Valley Alta	One Knoxville SC
Charlotte Independence	0-5 L	1-3 L
Fort Wayne FC	3-0 W	2-1 W
Chattanooga Red Wolves	0-1 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Antelope Valley Alta

DLWDLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-4	0-5	2	4	L
23/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
16/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
09/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
06/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	9	8	L
02/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-1	2-3	5	8	L
26/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
19/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-1	3-2	5	0	W
16/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
06/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	7	4	D

One Knoxville SC

WWLLLWDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
23/08	AC Boise USA USL League One	2-1	2-2	1	3	D
20/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
16/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
09/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	0	2	W
02/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
26/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
19/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-1	2-3	8	0	L
16/07	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	9	6	W
03/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	1-1	2-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Antelope Valley Alta vs One Knoxville SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an One Knoxville SC win (44%). Probabilities: Antelope Valley Alta 30%, draw 26%, One Knoxville SC 44%.

How many goals are expected in Antelope Valley Alta vs One Knoxville SC?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Antelope Valley Alta 1.25 · One Knoxville SC 1.55), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Antelope Valley Alta vs One Knoxville SC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.