Football · USA USL League One · 06/09, 02:30

Prediction: Corpus Christi FC vs Forward Madison FC

Team pages: Corpus Christi FC · Forward Madison FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Corpus Christi FC1.33

Forward Madison FC1.36

1X2

35% 28% 37%

Corpus Christi FC Draw Forward Madison FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Corpus Christi FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Forward Madison FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Corpus Christi FC 0–1 Forward Madison FC (1 last)

Forward Madison FC3-0Corpus Christi FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Corpus Christi FC 1523 · Forward Madison FC 1580

	Corpus Christi FC	Draw	Forward Madison FC
Our model	35%	28%	37%
Market	36%	27%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forward Madison FC (rating 1523 vs 1580).
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Corpus Christi FC	Forward Madison FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	2.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 4.4	3.5 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0	4.7 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.30

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.50▼	Bet365 2.50
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.32
2	2.30 → 2.40▲	Pinn 2.43 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:25 +36’	2.63	3.30	2.30
10:09 +3’	2.50▼	3.30	2.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:00	2.57	3.24	2.53
23:48	2.54▼	3.28▲	2.50▼
03:41 +1’	2.55▲	3.33▲	2.51▲
06:55	2.51▼	3.37▲	2.48▼
10:12	2.47▼	3.32▼	2.43▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Corpus Christi FC 0–0–1 Forward Madison FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 USA USL League One	Forward Madison FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Corpus Christi FC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	23	15	4	4	55	31	49
2	Union Omaha	24	14	4	6	41	27	46
3	Forward Madison FC	23	13	5	5	44	24	44
4	One Knoxville SC	23	11	7	5	38	26	40
5	Spokane Velocity FC	21	12	2	7	32	27	38
6	AC Boise	23	11	5	7	36	33	38
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	22	11	2	9	41	35	35
8	Fort Wayne FC	22	9	6	7	32	25	33
9	Antelope Valley Alta	25	8	8	9	33	34	32
10	Corpus Christi FC	23	7	9	7	28	32	30
11	FC Naples	23	8	2	13	27	39	26
12	Sarasota Paradise	23	7	4	12	25	37	25
13	Westchester SC	23	6	5	12	34	35	23
14	Greenville Triumph SC	22	6	5	11	27	35	23
15	Portland Hearts of Pine	24	5	8	11	35	44	23
16	New York Cosmos	23	5	4	14	26	46	19
17	Richmond Kickers	23	5	4	14	21	45	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Corpus Christi FC	Forward Madison FC
Westchester SC	2-2 D	2-0 W
Portland Hearts of Pine	2-0 W	2-1 W
AC Boise	0-0 D	1-2 L
Greenville Triumph SC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Chattanooga Red Wolves	2-1 W	5-2 W
Charlotte Independence	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Corpus Christi FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-2	2-2	11	5	D
20/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
16/08	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-1	3-2	2	5	W
09/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
02/08	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
26/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
19/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
01/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
25/06	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	5	5	D

Forward Madison FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
30/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
23/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
17/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
13/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	11	4	D
09/08	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
02/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
30/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	3-2	5-2	8	5	W
26/07	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-0	3-1	3	3	W
16/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-0	4-0	9	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Corpus Christi FC vs Forward Madison FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Forward Madison FC win (37%). Probabilities: Corpus Christi FC 35%, draw 28%, Forward Madison FC 37%.

How many goals are expected in Corpus Christi FC vs Forward Madison FC?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Corpus Christi FC 1.33 · Forward Madison FC 1.36), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Corpus Christi FC vs Forward Madison FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.