Football · USA USL League One · 06/09, 01:30

Prediction: FC Naples vs AC Boise

Team pages: FC Naples · AC Boise

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

FC Naples1.34

AC Boise1.52

1X2

33% 27% 41%

FC Naples Draw AC Boise

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Naples 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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AC Boise 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Naples 0–1 AC Boise (1 last)

AC Boise2-0FC Naples

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Naples 1450 · AC Boise 1567

	FC Naples	Draw	AC Boise
Our model	32%	27%	40%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AC Boise (rating 1450 vs 1567).
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Naples	AC Boise
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.1	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.7	2.5 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.40

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 2.75▼	Bet365 2.75
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.51
2	1.95 → 2.20▲	Pinn 2.36 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
20:46 +8’	3.20	3.50	1.95
10:05 +6’	2.75▼	3.40▼	2.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:59	3.01	3.53	2.10
23:47	2.91▼	3.55▲	2.15▲
03:40	2.84▼	3.57▲	2.18▲
06:52 +1’	2.58▼	3.60▲	2.31▲
10:11	2.44▼	3.51▼	2.36▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Naples 0–0–1 AC Boise

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 USA USL League One	AC Boise	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Naples

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	23	15	4	4	55	31	49
2	Union Omaha	24	14	4	6	41	27	46
3	Forward Madison FC	23	13	5	5	44	24	44
4	One Knoxville SC	23	11	7	5	38	26	40
5	Spokane Velocity FC	21	12	2	7	32	27	38
6	AC Boise	23	11	5	7	36	33	38
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	22	11	2	9	41	35	35
8	Fort Wayne FC	22	9	6	7	32	25	33
9	Antelope Valley Alta	25	8	8	9	33	34	32
10	Corpus Christi FC	23	7	9	7	28	32	30
11	FC Naples	23	8	2	13	27	39	26
12	Sarasota Paradise	23	7	4	12	25	37	25
13	Westchester SC	23	6	5	12	34	35	23
14	Greenville Triumph SC	22	6	5	11	27	35	23
15	Portland Hearts of Pine	24	5	8	11	35	44	23
16	New York Cosmos	23	5	4	14	26	46	19
17	Richmond Kickers	23	5	4	14	21	45	19

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Naples	AC Boise
Greenville Triumph SC	0-4 L	2-3 L
Union Omaha	2-0 W	1-0 W
Westchester SC	2-3 L	1-0 W
Forward Madison FC	1-3 L	2-1 W
New York Cosmos	0-1 L	2-1 W
Portland Hearts of Pine	2-3 L	2-1 W
Chattanooga Red Wolves	0-1 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 6 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: AC Boise (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Naples

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-4	5	3	L
27/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
23/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	2-1	6	5	W
16/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-3	2-3	5	4	L
06/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	8	W
26/07	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
09/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
04/07	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	2-3	7	1	L
21/06	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
14/06	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-1	3-4	6	4	L

AC Boise

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
23/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-2	2-2	8	3	D
09/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	7	7	W
02/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
30/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-2	2-3	6	5	L
26/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	3	3	W
18/07	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
06/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
03/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-1	1-2	10	5	L
21/06	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Naples vs AC Boise?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AC Boise win (41%). Probabilities: FC Naples 33%, draw 27%, AC Boise 41%.

How many goals are expected in FC Naples vs AC Boise?

The model expects 2.86 goals (FC Naples 1.34 · AC Boise 1.52), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Naples vs AC Boise?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.