Football · USA USL League One · 06/09, 01:30

Prediction: Sarasota Paradise vs Spokane Velocity FC

Team pages: Sarasota Paradise · Spokane Velocity FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Sarasota Paradise1.27

Spokane Velocity FC1.31

1X2

35% 28% 37%

Sarasota Paradise Draw Spokane Velocity FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sarasota Paradise 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDDLLWDW

Spokane Velocity FC 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWWLWW

Head-to-head

Sarasota Paradise 0–1 Spokane Velocity FC (1 last)

Spokane Velocity FC1-0Sarasota Paradise

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sarasota Paradise 1476 · Spokane Velocity FC 1544

	Sarasota Paradise	Draw	Spokane Velocity FC
Our model	34%	29%	37%
Market	35%	28%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Spokane Velocity FC (rating 1476 vs 1544).
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sarasota Paradise	Spokane Velocity FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	1.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.9	2.4 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.25

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 1 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.55▼	Pinn 2.78 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.15 → 2.40▲	Pinn 2.49

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
22:52 +7’	2.90	3.25	2.15
03:37 +3’	2.55▼	3.25	2.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:59	2.66	3.03	2.60
23:47	2.64▼	3.08▲	2.58▼
01:07	2.77▲	3.06▼	2.48▼
06:52 +1’	2.78▲	3.03▼	2.48
10:11	2.78	3.03	2.49▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarasota Paradise 0–0–1 Spokane Velocity FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 USA USL League One	Spokane Velocity FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Sarasota Paradise

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	23	15	4	4	55	31	49
2	Union Omaha	24	14	4	6	41	27	46
3	Forward Madison FC	23	13	5	5	44	24	44
4	One Knoxville SC	23	11	7	5	38	26	40
5	Spokane Velocity FC	21	12	2	7	32	27	38
6	AC Boise	23	11	5	7	36	33	38
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	22	11	2	9	41	35	35
8	Fort Wayne FC	22	9	6	7	32	25	33
9	Antelope Valley Alta	25	8	8	9	33	34	32
10	Corpus Christi FC	23	7	9	7	28	32	30
11	FC Naples	23	8	2	13	27	39	26
12	Sarasota Paradise	23	7	4	12	25	37	25
13	Westchester SC	23	6	5	12	34	35	23
14	Greenville Triumph SC	22	6	5	11	27	35	23
15	Portland Hearts of Pine	24	5	8	11	35	44	23
16	New York Cosmos	23	5	4	14	26	46	19
17	Richmond Kickers	23	5	4	14	21	45	19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sarasota Paradise	Spokane Velocity FC
Charlotte Independence	1-3 L	3-0 W
One Knoxville SC	1-2 L	0-4 L
Greenville Triumph SC	0-0 D	2-1 W
Richmond Kickers	0-0 D	2-0 W
Corpus Christi FC	1-4 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Spokane Velocity FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sarasota Paradise

LWLDDLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
23/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	5	8	D
20/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	3-1	3-2	8	2	W
16/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-3	1-3	5	7	L
09/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	14	2	L
09/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
04/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
21/06	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-4	5	6	L
14/06	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
11/06	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	6	3	L

Spokane Velocity FC

LWLLWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	2-1	3-1	2	3	W
23/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-0	2-1	8	5	W
16/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-0	2-3	3	5	L
26/07	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-1	3-1	6	6	W
23/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-0	3-0	2	3	W
19/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-0	2-0	5	3	W
05/07	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
02/07	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	12	5	L
25/06	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-1	2-1	4	1	W
21/06	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-2	0-4	10	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sarasota Paradise vs Spokane Velocity FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Spokane Velocity FC win (37%). Probabilities: Sarasota Paradise 35%, draw 28%, Spokane Velocity FC 37%.

How many goals are expected in Sarasota Paradise vs Spokane Velocity FC?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Sarasota Paradise 1.27 · Spokane Velocity FC 1.31), with a 58% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Sarasota Paradise vs Spokane Velocity FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.