Football · USA USL League One · 27/08, 01:30
Prediction: FC Naples vs Union Omaha
Team pages: FC Naples · Union Omaha
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
FC Naples1.24
Union Omaha1.64
1X2
FC Naples
Draw
Union Omaha
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Naples
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Union Omaha
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Naples
1–1–2
Union Omaha
(4 last)
- Union Omaha2-1FC Naples
- FC Naples0-0Union Omaha
- Union Omaha2-1FC Naples
- FC Naples3-1Union Omaha
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Naples 1416 · Union Omaha 1548
| FC Naples | Draw | Union Omaha | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 28% | 27% | 46% |
| Market | 28% | 26% | 46% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Omaha (rating 1416 vs 1548).
- H2H favours Union Omaha: 2-1-1.
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Naples | Union Omaha | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 2.4 | 1.8 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 5.2 | 2.1 / 7.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Naples 1–1–2 Union Omaha
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 USA USL League One | Union Omaha | 2-1 HT 0-1 | FC Naples |
| 02/11/25 USA USL League One | FC Naples | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Union Omaha |
| 06/10/25 USA USL League One | Union Omaha | 2-1 HT 0-0 | FC Naples |
| 26/05/25 USA USL League One | FC Naples | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Union Omaha |
Standings · USA USL League One
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 24 | 45 |
| 2 | Charlotte Independence | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 47 | 29 | 43 |
| 3 | Forward Madison FC | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 41 | 22 | 40 |
| 4 | One Knoxville SC | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 37 | 25 | 39 |
| 5 | Spokane Velocity FC | 20 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 26 | 35 |
| 6 | AC Boise | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 33 | 31 | 35 |
| 7 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 32 | 32 |
| 8 | Antelope Valley Alta | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 29 | 32 |
| 9 | Corpus Christi FC | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 28 | 32 | 30 |
| 10 | Fort Wayne FC | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 27 |
| 11 | FC Naples | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 25 | 35 | 23 |
| 12 | Westchester SC | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 33 | 31 | 23 |
| 13 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 22 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 32 | 37 | 23 |
| 14 | Sarasota Paradise | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 23 | 36 | 22 |
| 15 | Greenville Triumph SC | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 35 | 20 |
| 16 | Richmond Kickers | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 41 | 19 |
| 17 | New York Cosmos | 21 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 24 | 43 | 18 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Naples | Union Omaha |
|---|---|---|
| Antelope Valley Alta | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Westchester SC | 2-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Portland Hearts of Pine | 2-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Chattanooga Red Wolves | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Charlotte Independence | 3-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 4 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Union Omaha (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Naples
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 16/08 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
0-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 06/08 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 26/07 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 09/07 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 21/06 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
1-1 | 3-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 04/06 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
0-3 | 1-5 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
Union Omaha
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 17/08 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
3-1 | 5-1 | 13 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 23/07 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 19/07 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 02/07 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
0-1 | 3-1 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 14/06 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 11/06 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Naples vs Union Omaha?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Union Omaha win (46%). Probabilities: FC Naples 28%, draw 26%, Union Omaha 46%.
How many goals are expected in FC Naples vs Union Omaha?
The model expects 2.88 goals (FC Naples 1.24 · Union Omaha 1.64), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Naples vs Union Omaha?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.