Football · USA USL League One · 03/09, 01:30

Prediction: Fort Wayne FC vs Richmond Kickers

Team pages: Fort Wayne FC · Richmond Kickers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Fort Wayne FC2.15

Richmond Kickers1.1

1X2

61% 22% 18%

Fort Wayne FC Draw Richmond Kickers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Fort Wayne FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Richmond Kickers 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLWWLDL

Head-to-head

Fort Wayne FC 1–0 Richmond Kickers (1 last)

Richmond Kickers0-2Fort Wayne FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fort Wayne FC 1478 · Richmond Kickers 1446

	Fort Wayne FC	Draw	Richmond Kickers
Our model	60%	22%	18%
Market	61%	21%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fort Wayne FC	Richmond Kickers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0.4 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.8	2.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.20

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Pinn 1.48
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.51 ★
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.09

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +4’	1.48	4.20	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:15	1.46	4.61	5.24
15:31	1.48▲	4.51▼	5.09▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fort Wayne FC 1–0–0 Richmond Kickers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 USA USL League One	Richmond Kickers	0-2 HT 0-2	Fort Wayne FC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	22	14	4	4	52	29	46
2	Union Omaha	24	14	4	6	41	27	46
3	Forward Madison FC	22	13	4	5	43	23	43
4	One Knoxville SC	22	11	6	5	37	25	39
5	Spokane Velocity FC	21	12	2	7	32	27	38
6	AC Boise	23	11	5	7	36	33	38
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	21	10	2	9	40	35	32
8	Antelope Valley Alta	25	8	8	9	33	34	32
9	Fort Wayne FC	21	8	6	7	30	25	30
10	Corpus Christi FC	23	7	9	7	28	32	30
11	FC Naples	23	8	2	13	27	39	26
12	Westchester SC	22	6	5	11	34	34	23
13	Greenville Triumph SC	22	6	5	11	27	35	23
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	23	5	8	10	33	41	23
15	Sarasota Paradise	22	6	4	12	23	36	22
16	New York Cosmos	22	5	4	13	25	44	19
17	Richmond Kickers	22	5	4	13	21	43	19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fort Wayne FC	Richmond Kickers
Portland Hearts of Pine	4-1 W	1-1 D
Antelope Valley Alta	0-3 L	3-2 W
Union Omaha	0-2 L	1-5 L
Spokane Velocity FC	1-3 L	0-2 L
Forward Madison FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Fort Wayne FC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Fort Wayne FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	2-0	4-1	1	6	W
16/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	1-2	10	6	L
09/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	13	5	L
02/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
26/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-3	10	6	L
19/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-0	3-0	1	5	W
16/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	6	6	L
05/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
21/06	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
18/06	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	6	5	D

Richmond Kickers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	8	7	L
23/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
17/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-3	1-5	1	4	L
06/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
02/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	3-2	6	8	W
26/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	9	0	L
19/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
16/07	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
04/07	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
25/06	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-1	1-5	2	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fort Wayne FC vs Richmond Kickers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fort Wayne FC win (61%). Probabilities: Fort Wayne FC 61%, draw 22%, Richmond Kickers 18%.

How many goals are expected in Fort Wayne FC vs Richmond Kickers?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Fort Wayne FC 2.15 · Richmond Kickers 1.1), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Fort Wayne FC vs Richmond Kickers?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.