Football · USA USL League One · 03/09, 01:00

Prediction: New York Cosmos vs Sarasota Paradise

Team pages: New York Cosmos · Sarasota Paradise

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

New York Cosmos1.41

Sarasota Paradise1.22

1X2

41% 27% 32%

New York Cosmos Draw Sarasota Paradise

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

New York Cosmos 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLLLWWDD

Sarasota Paradise 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLDDLLWD

Head-to-head

New York Cosmos 0–1 Sarasota Paradise (1 last)

Sarasota Paradise2-1New York Cosmos

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New York Cosmos 1483 · Sarasota Paradise 1472

	New York Cosmos	Draw	Sarasota Paradise
Our model	40%	29%	31%
Market	41%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York Cosmos	Sarasota Paradise
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5	3.3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.48
2	2.75 → 2.75	Pinn 3.02 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:11 +4’	2.15	3.40	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:15 +1’	2.11	3.49	3.02
15:31	2.11	3.48▼	3.02

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · New York Cosmos 0–0–1 Sarasota Paradise

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 USA USL League One	Sarasota Paradise	2-1 HT 0-0	New York Cosmos

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	22	14	4	4	52	29	46
2	Union Omaha	24	14	4	6	41	27	46
3	Forward Madison FC	22	13	4	5	43	23	43
4	One Knoxville SC	22	11	6	5	37	25	39
5	Spokane Velocity FC	21	12	2	7	32	27	38
6	AC Boise	23	11	5	7	36	33	38
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	21	10	2	9	40	35	32
8	Antelope Valley Alta	25	8	8	9	33	34	32
9	Fort Wayne FC	21	8	6	7	30	25	30
10	Corpus Christi FC	23	7	9	7	28	32	30
11	FC Naples	23	8	2	13	27	39	26
12	Westchester SC	22	6	5	11	34	34	23
13	Greenville Triumph SC	22	6	5	11	27	35	23
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	23	5	8	10	33	41	23
15	Sarasota Paradise	22	6	4	12	23	36	22
16	New York Cosmos	22	5	4	13	25	44	19
17	Richmond Kickers	22	5	4	13	21	43	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York Cosmos	Sarasota Paradise
Union Omaha	1-1 D	1-1 D
Chattanooga Red Wolves	3-3 D	3-2 W
Corpus Christi FC	2-0 W	1-4 L
Antelope Valley Alta	1-0 W	1-3 L
Richmond Kickers	0-2 L	0-0 D
Greenville Triumph SC	0-3 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sarasota Paradise (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New York Cosmos

LWDLLLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-2	3-3	8	4	D
20/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
16/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
06/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
26/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	1	3	L
23/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
19/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
09/07	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
05/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	12	4	L

Sarasota Paradise

WLWLDDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	5	8	D
20/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	3-1	3-2	8	2	W
16/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-3	1-3	5	7	L
09/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	14	2	L
09/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
04/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
21/06	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-4	5	6	L
14/06	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
11/06	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
31/05	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	4	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York Cosmos vs Sarasota Paradise?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New York Cosmos win (41%). Probabilities: New York Cosmos 41%, draw 27%, Sarasota Paradise 32%.

How many goals are expected in New York Cosmos vs Sarasota Paradise?

The model expects 2.63 goals (New York Cosmos 1.41 · Sarasota Paradise 1.22), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in New York Cosmos vs Sarasota Paradise?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.