Football · USA USL League One · 02/08, 03:30

Prediction: AC Boise vs Corpus Christi FC

Team pages: AC Boise · Corpus Christi FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

AC Boise1.84

Corpus Christi FC0.87

1X2

60% 24% 17%

AC Boise Draw Corpus Christi FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

AC Boise 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Corpus Christi FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Boise 1506 · Corpus Christi FC 1529

	AC Boise	Draw	Corpus Christi FC
Our model	59%	25%	16%
Market	60%	23%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Boise	Corpus Christi FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.7	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.90

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 02:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.50▼	Pinn 1.58 ★
X	3.75 → 3.90▲	Pinn 3.96
2	4.50 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:09 +17’	1.60	3.75	4.50
23:40 +3’	1.45▼	4.00▲	5.50▲
00:10 +27’	1.60▲	3.75▼	4.50▼
02:45 +2’	1.50▼	3.90▲	5.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:37	1.68	3.73	4.36
00:37	1.58▼	3.96▲	4.82▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	18	11	2	5	29	21	35
2	Charlotte Independence	17	10	3	4	39	26	33
3	One Knoxville SC	17	10	3	4	30	17	33
4	Forward Madison FC	16	10	2	4	34	17	32
5	Spokane Velocity FC	18	10	2	6	25	22	32
6	AC Boise	19	9	3	7	29	28	30
7	Antelope Valley Alta	19	7	8	4	26	21	29
8	Chattanooga Red Wolves	16	9	1	6	30	22	28
9	Fort Wayne FC	17	7	6	4	25	17	27
10	Corpus Christi FC	18	5	7	6	21	26	22
11	Portland Hearts of Pine	17	5	5	7	26	28	20
12	Westchester SC	18	5	4	9	28	25	19
13	Sarasota Paradise	18	5	3	10	17	28	18
14	Greenville Triumph SC	16	5	2	9	17	27	17
15	FC Naples	18	5	2	11	19	30	17
16	Richmond Kickers	17	3	3	11	13	33	12
17	New York Cosmos	17	3	2	12	18	38	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AC Boise	Corpus Christi FC
Greenville Triumph SC	2-3 L	1-0 W
New York Cosmos	2-1 W	0-0 D
Portland Hearts of Pine	2-1 W	3-2 W
One Knoxville SC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Richmond Kickers	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Corpus Christi FC (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

AC Boise

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-2	2-3	6	5	L
26/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	3	3	W
18/07	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
12/07	Sacramento Republic USA USL Cup	1-0	2-0	1	1	W
06/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
03/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-1	1-2	10	5	L
21/06	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
14/06	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-5	4	5	L
11/06	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-0	2-1	7	10	W
07/06	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL Cup	0-0	1-2	4	4	L

Corpus Christi FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
19/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
12/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
05/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
01/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
25/06	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
21/06	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	2-0	4-1	2	6	W
14/06	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
10/06	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Cup	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
04/06	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-1	3-2	6	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Boise vs Corpus Christi FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AC Boise win (60%). Probabilities: AC Boise 60%, draw 24%, Corpus Christi FC 17%.

How many goals are expected in AC Boise vs Corpus Christi FC?

The model expects 2.72 goals (AC Boise 1.84 · Corpus Christi FC 0.87), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Boise vs Corpus Christi FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.