Football · USA USL League One · 09/08, 01:30

Prediction: One Knoxville SC vs Sarasota Paradise

Team pages: One Knoxville SC · Sarasota Paradise

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

One Knoxville SC1.85

Sarasota Paradise0.99

1X2

56% 25% 19%

One Knoxville SC Draw Sarasota Paradise

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

One Knoxville SC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWWDWLLL

Sarasota Paradise 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLWLDDL

Head-to-head

One Knoxville SC 1–0 Sarasota Paradise (1 last)

Sarasota Paradise1-2One Knoxville SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · One Knoxville SC 1532 · Sarasota Paradise 1484

	One Knoxville SC	Draw	Sarasota Paradise
Our model	56%	25%	19%
Market	56%	25%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours One Knoxville SC (rating 1532 vs 1484).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	One Knoxville SC	Sarasota Paradise
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.1	2.1 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.60

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.90 ★
2	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 4.87

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
22:15 +4’	1.60	3.60	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:17 +2’	1.59	3.90	4.87

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · One Knoxville SC 1–0–0 Sarasota Paradise

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 USA USL League One	Sarasota Paradise	1-2 HT 0-0	One Knoxville SC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	19	12	2	5	31	21	38
2	Charlotte Independence	18	11	3	4	42	27	36
3	Forward Madison FC	17	11	2	4	36	17	35
4	One Knoxville SC	18	10	3	5	31	20	33
5	Spokane Velocity FC	18	10	2	6	25	22	32
6	AC Boise	20	9	4	7	29	28	31
7	Antelope Valley Alta	21	7	8	6	29	26	29
8	Chattanooga Red Wolves	16	9	1	6	30	22	28
9	Fort Wayne FC	18	7	6	5	25	19	27
10	Corpus Christi FC	19	5	8	6	21	26	23
11	Portland Hearts of Pine	18	5	6	7	29	31	21
12	FC Naples	19	6	2	11	21	31	20
13	Westchester SC	19	5	4	10	28	27	19
14	Greenville Triumph SC	17	5	3	9	20	30	18
15	Sarasota Paradise	18	5	3	10	17	28	18
16	Richmond Kickers	19	5	3	11	18	35	18
17	New York Cosmos	18	3	2	13	18	40	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	One Knoxville SC	Sarasota Paradise
Antelope Valley Alta	2-3 L	1-3 L
Corpus Christi FC	1-1 D	1-4 L
AC Boise	2-1 W	2-0 W
Spokane Velocity FC	4-0 W	0-1 L
New York Cosmos	3-1 W	2-1 W
Greenville Triumph SC	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: One Knoxville SC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

One Knoxville SC

WDWWWDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
26/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
19/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-1	2-3	8	0	L
16/07	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	9	7	W
12/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
03/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
21/06	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	2-0	4-0	4	4	W
14/06	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
11/06	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
30/05	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	8	6	W

Sarasota Paradise

LWWWLWLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Miami FC USA USL Cup	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
09/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
04/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
21/06	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-4	5	6	L
14/06	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
11/06	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
07/06	FC Naples USA USL Cup	1-0	2-0	0	8	W
31/05	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
28/05	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	0	2	W
25/05	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in One Knoxville SC vs Sarasota Paradise?

According to our model, the most likely result is a One Knoxville SC win (56%). Probabilities: One Knoxville SC 56%, draw 25%, Sarasota Paradise 19%.

How many goals are expected in One Knoxville SC vs Sarasota Paradise?

The model expects 2.84 goals (One Knoxville SC 1.85 · Sarasota Paradise 0.99), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in One Knoxville SC vs Sarasota Paradise?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.