Football · USA USL League One · 09/08, 01:00
Prediction: Charlotte Independence vs Greenville Triumph SC
Team pages: Charlotte Independence · Greenville Triumph SC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.68Total
Charlotte Independence2.2
Greenville Triumph SC1.48
1X2
Charlotte Independence
Draw
Greenville Triumph SC
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Charlotte Independence
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Greenville Triumph SC
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Charlotte Independence
4–2
Greenville Triumph SC
(6 last)
- Charlotte Independence1-0Greenville Triumph SC
- Charlotte Independence4-5Greenville Triumph SC
- Charlotte Independence1-0Greenville Triumph SC
- Greenville Triumph SC1-0Charlotte Independence
- Greenville Triumph SC0-1Charlotte Independence
- Charlotte Independence2-1Greenville Triumph SC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Charlotte Independence 1525 · Greenville Triumph SC 1463
| Charlotte Independence | Draw | Greenville Triumph SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 22% | 25% |
| Market | 53% | 23% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlotte Independence (rating 1525 vs 1463).
- H2H favours Charlotte Independence: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Charlotte Independence | Greenville Triumph SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.6 | 1.1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.3 | 0.5 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/40/0% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.9 | 2.3 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 4.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Charlotte Independence 4–0–2 Greenville Triumph SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/26 USA USL Cup | Charlotte Independence | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Greenville Triumph SC |
| 10/08/25 USA USL League One | Charlotte Independence | 4-5 HT 2-2 | Greenville Triumph SC |
| 16/06/25 USA USL League One | Charlotte Independence | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Greenville Triumph SC |
| 06/04/25 USA USL League One | Greenville Triumph SC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Charlotte Independence |
| 31/08/24 USA USL Cup | Greenville Triumph SC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Charlotte Independence |
| 11/08/24 USA USL Cup | Charlotte Independence | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Greenville Triumph SC |
Standings · USA USL League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 19 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 21 | 38 |
| 2 | Charlotte Independence | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 42 | 27 | 36 |
| 3 | Forward Madison FC | 17 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 36 | 17 | 35 |
| 4 | One Knoxville SC | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 20 | 33 |
| 5 | Spokane Velocity FC | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 22 | 32 |
| 6 | AC Boise | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 28 | 31 |
| 7 | Antelope Valley Alta | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 29 | 26 | 29 |
| 8 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 22 | 28 |
| 9 | Fort Wayne FC | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 19 | 27 |
| 10 | Corpus Christi FC | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 21 | 26 | 23 |
| 11 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 31 | 21 |
| 12 | FC Naples | 19 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 31 | 20 |
| 13 | Westchester SC | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 28 | 27 | 19 |
| 14 | Greenville Triumph SC | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 30 | 18 |
| 15 | Sarasota Paradise | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 28 | 18 |
| 16 | Richmond Kickers | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 18 | 35 | 18 |
| 17 | New York Cosmos | 18 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 18 | 40 | 11 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Charlotte Independence | Greenville Triumph SC |
|---|---|---|
| Richmond Kickers | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Antelope Valley Alta | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Corpus Christi FC | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 0 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Charlotte Independence (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Charlotte Independence
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | One Knoxville SC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 23/07 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 12/07 | Charleston Battery USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 06/07 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 01/07 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
2-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 25/06 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
1-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 11/06 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
Greenville Triumph SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
1-3 | 3-3 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 30/07 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
2-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 19/07 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 12/07 | Richmond Kickers USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 09/07 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 05/07 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 25/06 | Charlotte Independence USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 15/06 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
0-3 | 0-4 | 9 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Charlotte Independence vs Greenville Triumph SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Charlotte Independence win (53%). Probabilities: Charlotte Independence 53%, draw 23%, Greenville Triumph SC 24%.
How many goals are expected in Charlotte Independence vs Greenville Triumph SC?
The model expects 3.68 goals (Charlotte Independence 2.2 · Greenville Triumph SC 1.48), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Charlotte Independence vs Greenville Triumph SC?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.