Football · USA USL League One · 09/08, 01:00

Prediction: Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Union Omaha

Team pages: Chattanooga Red Wolves · Union Omaha

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

Chattanooga Red Wolves1.62

Union Omaha1.38

1X2

43% 26% 32%

Chattanooga Red Wolves Draw Union Omaha

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Chattanooga Red Wolves 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLWWWL

Union Omaha 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLLWLDWW

Head-to-head

Chattanooga Red Wolves 1–1–4 Union Omaha (6 last)

Union Omaha2-0Chattanooga Red Wolves
Chattanooga Red Wolves0-3Union Omaha
Union Omaha2-2Chattanooga Red Wolves
Union Omaha0-1Chattanooga Red Wolves
Union Omaha4-2Chattanooga Red Wolves
Chattanooga Red Wolves2-5Union Omaha

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1523 · Union Omaha 1539

	Chattanooga Red Wolves	Draw	Union Omaha
Our model	42%	26%	31%
Market	43%	25%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Union Omaha: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chattanooga Red Wolves	Union Omaha
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.6	2.2 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.60

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 06:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.10▼	Bet365 2.10
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Pinn 3.85 ★
2	2.38 → 2.80▲	Pinn 2.82

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
22:15 +1’	2.45	3.50	2.38
23:34 +33’	2.25▼	3.50	2.60▲
01:51 +1’	2.20▼	3.50	2.63▲
06:27 +7’	2.10▼	3.60▲	2.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:11 +5’	2.48	3.64	2.42
00:07	2.09▼	3.69▲	2.72▲
01:52	2.04▼	3.75▲	2.77▲
13:37 +3’	2.06▲	3.85▲	2.82▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1–1–4 Union Omaha

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 USA USL League One	Union Omaha	2-0 HT 0-0	Chattanooga Red Wolves
28/09/25 USA USL League One	Chattanooga Red Wolves	0-3 HT 0-3	Union Omaha
10/08/25 USA USL League One	Union Omaha	2-2 HT 1-1	Chattanooga Red Wolves
28/07/24 USA USL League One	Union Omaha	0-1 HT 0-0	Chattanooga Red Wolves
28/06/24 USA USL Cup	Union Omaha	4-2 HT 2-2	Chattanooga Red Wolves
06/06/24 USA USL League One	Chattanooga Red Wolves	2-5 HT 1-3	Union Omaha

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	19	12	2	5	31	21	38
2	Charlotte Independence	18	11	3	4	42	27	36
3	Forward Madison FC	17	11	2	4	36	17	35
4	One Knoxville SC	18	10	3	5	31	20	33
5	Spokane Velocity FC	18	10	2	6	25	22	32
6	AC Boise	20	9	4	7	29	28	31
7	Antelope Valley Alta	21	7	8	6	29	26	29
8	Chattanooga Red Wolves	16	9	1	6	30	22	28
9	Fort Wayne FC	18	7	6	5	25	19	27
10	Corpus Christi FC	19	5	8	6	21	26	23
11	Portland Hearts of Pine	18	5	6	7	29	31	21
12	FC Naples	19	6	2	11	21	31	20
13	Westchester SC	19	5	4	10	28	27	19
14	Greenville Triumph SC	17	5	3	9	20	30	18
15	Sarasota Paradise	18	5	3	10	17	28	18
16	Richmond Kickers	19	5	3	11	18	35	18
17	New York Cosmos	18	3	2	13	18	40	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chattanooga Red Wolves	Union Omaha
Forward Madison FC	2-5 L	3-4 L
Charlotte Independence	4-2 W	0-2 L
Antelope Valley Alta	1-0 W	3-1 W
Westchester SC	2-0 W	2-2 D
FC Naples	1-0 W	2-1 W
Portland Hearts of Pine	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Chattanooga Red Wolves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	2-3	2-5	5	5	L
26/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
19/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	4-2	5	3	W
16/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
12/07	San Antonio FC USA USL Cup	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
05/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-1	1-2	10	3	L
02/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	10	5	W
21/06	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
14/06	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
11/06	One Knoxville SC USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	9	4	D

Union Omaha

WWLLLWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
23/07	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	2-1	2-1	4	6	W
19/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
12/07	Forward Madison FC USA USL Cup	1-2	3-4	6	7	L
02/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	3-1	12	3	W
21/06	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
14/06	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	0-2	7	6	L
11/06	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
07/06	Fort Wayne FC USA USL Cup	2-2	4-2	4	3	W
31/05	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	2-1	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Union Omaha?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chattanooga Red Wolves win (43%). Probabilities: Chattanooga Red Wolves 43%, draw 26%, Union Omaha 32%.

How many goals are expected in Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Union Omaha?

The model expects 3 goals (Chattanooga Red Wolves 1.62 · Union Omaha 1.38), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Union Omaha?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.