Football · USA USL League One · 19/07, 01:00

Prediction: Charlotte Independence vs Chattanooga Red Wolves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Charlotte Independence1.68

Chattanooga Red Wolves1.27

1X2

46% 26% 28%

Charlotte Independence Draw Chattanooga Red Wolves

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Charlotte Independence 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWWWDD

Chattanooga Red Wolves 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDWWWLLW

Head-to-head

Charlotte Independence 3–1–2 Chattanooga Red Wolves (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Charlotte Independence 1558 · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1528

	Charlotte Independence	Draw	Chattanooga Red Wolves
Our model	46%	26%	28%
Market	46%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Charlotte Independence: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charlotte Independence	Chattanooga Red Wolves
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.5	2.6 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.68
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.60 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:13 +10’	1.95	3.50	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:24 +1’	1.84	3.68	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Charlotte Independence 3–1–2 Chattanooga Red Wolves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 USA USL League One	Chattanooga Red Wolves	2-3 HT 2-2	Charlotte Independence
18/10/25 USA USL League One	Charlotte Independence	1-2 HT 1-2	Chattanooga Red Wolves
07/09/25 USA USL League One	Chattanooga Red Wolves	1-0 HT 0-0	Charlotte Independence
29/03/25 USA USL League One	Charlotte Independence	0-0 HT 0-0	Chattanooga Red Wolves
17/07/24 USA USL League One	Chattanooga Red Wolves	0-2 HT 0-1	Charlotte Independence
15/06/24 USA USL League One	Charlotte Independence	4-2 HT 1-2	Chattanooga Red Wolves

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	One Knoxville SC	15	10	3	2	28	13	33
2	Union Omaha	16	10	1	5	25	18	31
3	Charlotte Independence	14	9	3	2	34	18	30
4	Forward Madison FC	14	8	2	4	26	14	26
5	Antelope Valley Alta	17	6	7	4	23	19	25
6	AC Boise	16	7	3	6	23	23	24
7	Fort Wayne FC	15	6	6	3	21	14	24
8	Spokane Velocity FC	15	7	2	6	17	21	23
9	Chattanooga Red Wolves	13	7	1	5	23	15	22
10	Portland Hearts of Pine	15	5	5	5	24	24	20
11	Sarasota Paradise	18	5	3	10	17	28	18
12	Corpus Christi FC	16	4	6	6	20	26	18
13	FC Naples	17	5	2	10	18	27	17
14	Westchester SC	15	4	2	9	23	23	14
15	Greenville Triumph SC	13	4	2	7	14	21	14
16	Richmond Kickers	15	3	3	9	12	28	12
17	New York Cosmos	14	3	1	10	17	33	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charlotte Independence	Chattanooga Red Wolves
Antelope Valley Alta	1-1 D	1-0 W
Corpus Christi FC	2-1 W	1-2 L
FC Naples	4-3 W	1-0 W
Union Omaha	2-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Charlotte Independence (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Charlotte Independence

DWWWWWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Charleston Battery USA USL Cup	1-1	2-2	1	3	D
06/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
01/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	2-1	2-1	8	5	W
25/06	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL Cup	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
14/06	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-1	4-3	6	4	W
11/06	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
04/06	FC Naples USA USL League One	3-0	5-1	5	5	W
31/05	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	2-2	3-2	5	7	W
24/05	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	2-1	3-1	5	5	W
16/05	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Cup	1-0	1-1	1	2	D

Chattanooga Red Wolves

LWLDWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
12/07	San Antonio FC USA USL Cup	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
05/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-1	1-2	10	3	L
02/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	10	5	W
21/06	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
14/06	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
11/06	One Knoxville SC USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
31/05	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	2-2	2-3	8	7	L
28/05	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-0	5-0	7	6	W
24/05	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	0-2	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charlotte Independence vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Charlotte Independence win (46%). Probabilities: Charlotte Independence 46%, draw 26%, Chattanooga Red Wolves 28%.

How many goals are expected in Charlotte Independence vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Charlotte Independence 1.68 · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1.27), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Charlotte Independence vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.