Football · USA USL League One · 26/07, 01:00
Prediction: Forward Madison FC vs FC Naples
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.84Total
Forward Madison FC1.82
FC Naples1.01
1X2
Forward Madison FC
Draw
FC Naples
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Forward Madison FC
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
FC Naples
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Forward Madison FC
1–1–1
FC Naples
(3 last)
- FC Naples0-1Forward Madison FC
- Forward Madison FC0-0FC Naples
- FC Naples2-0Forward Madison FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Forward Madison FC 1549 · FC Naples 1406
| Forward Madison FC | Draw | FC Naples | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Market | 56% | 23% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forward Madison FC (rating 1549 vs 1406).
- Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Forward Madison FC | FC Naples | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.7 | 1.9 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.1 | 4.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Forward Madison FC 1–1–1 FC Naples
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 USA USL League One | FC Naples | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Forward Madison FC |
| 17/08/25 USA USL League One | Forward Madison FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Naples |
| 16/03/25 USA USL League One | FC Naples | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Forward Madison FC |
Standings · USA USL League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 21 | 35 |
| 2 | One Knoxville SC | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 16 | 33 |
| 3 | Charlotte Independence | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 25 | 30 |
| 4 | Spokane Velocity FC | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 21 | 29 |
| 5 | Antelope Valley Alta | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 21 | 28 |
| 6 | AC Boise | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 27 |
| 7 | Fort Wayne FC | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 14 | 27 |
| 8 | Forward Madison FC | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 14 | 26 |
| 9 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 17 | 25 |
| 10 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 28 | 20 |
| 11 | Corpus Christi FC | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 26 | 19 |
| 12 | Westchester SC | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 25 | 18 |
| 13 | Sarasota Paradise | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 28 | 18 |
| 14 | FC Naples | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 27 | 17 |
| 15 | Greenville Triumph SC | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 24 | 14 |
| 16 | Richmond Kickers | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 30 | 12 |
| 17 | New York Cosmos | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 36 | 11 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Forward Madison FC | FC Naples |
|---|---|---|
| Union Omaha | 4-3 W | 1-2 L |
| New York Cosmos | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Charlotte Independence | 1-3 L | 3-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Forward Madison FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Forward Madison FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
2-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 12/07 | Union Omaha USA USL Cup |
2-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 02/07 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 18/06 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 14/06 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
1-0 | 5-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 07/06 | Indy Eleven USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 04/06 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 30/05 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
FC Naples
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 09/07 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 21/06 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
1-1 | 3-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 04/06 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
0-3 | 1-5 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | Sporting JAX USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Forward Madison FC vs FC Naples?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Forward Madison FC win (56%). Probabilities: Forward Madison FC 56%, draw 24%, FC Naples 20%.
How many goals are expected in Forward Madison FC vs FC Naples?
The model expects 2.84 goals (Forward Madison FC 1.82 · FC Naples 1.01), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Forward Madison FC vs FC Naples?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.