Football · USA USL League One · 26/07, 01:00
Prediction: Charlotte Independence vs Richmond Kickers
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.95Total
Charlotte Independence2.66
Richmond Kickers1.29
1X2
Charlotte Independence
Draw
Richmond Kickers
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Charlotte Independence
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Richmond Kickers
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Charlotte Independence
5–1
Richmond Kickers
(6 last)
- Richmond Kickers1-2Charlotte Independence
- Richmond Kickers2-3Charlotte Independence
- Charlotte Independence3-0Richmond Kickers
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Charlotte Independence 1569 · Richmond Kickers 1389
| Charlotte Independence | Draw | Richmond Kickers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 18% | 16% |
| Market | 65% | 20% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.95 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlotte Independence (rating 1569 vs 1389).
- H2H favours Charlotte Independence: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Charlotte Independence | Richmond Kickers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.7 | 0.6 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.8 | 1.3 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0 | 5.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Charlotte Independence 5–0–1 Richmond Kickers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 USA USL Cup | Richmond Kickers | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Charlotte Independence |
| 21/09/25 USA USL League One | Richmond Kickers | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Charlotte Independence |
| 27/07/25 USA USL Cup | Charlotte Independence | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Richmond Kickers |
| 16/03/25 USA USL League One | Charlotte Independence | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Richmond Kickers |
| 27/10/24 USA USL League One | Richmond Kickers | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Charlotte Independence |
| 15/09/24 USA USL League One | Charlotte Independence | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Richmond Kickers |
Standings · USA USL League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 21 | 35 |
| 2 | One Knoxville SC | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 16 | 33 |
| 3 | Charlotte Independence | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 25 | 30 |
| 4 | Spokane Velocity FC | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 21 | 29 |
| 5 | Antelope Valley Alta | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 21 | 28 |
| 6 | AC Boise | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 27 |
| 7 | Fort Wayne FC | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 14 | 27 |
| 8 | Forward Madison FC | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 14 | 26 |
| 9 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 17 | 25 |
| 10 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 28 | 20 |
| 11 | Corpus Christi FC | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 26 | 19 |
| 12 | Westchester SC | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 28 | 25 | 18 |
| 13 | Sarasota Paradise | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 28 | 18 |
| 14 | FC Naples | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 27 | 17 |
| 15 | Greenville Triumph SC | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 24 | 14 |
| 16 | Richmond Kickers | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 30 | 12 |
| 17 | New York Cosmos | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 36 | 11 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Charlotte Independence | Richmond Kickers |
|---|---|---|
| Spokane Velocity FC | 0-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Corpus Christi FC | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Greenville Triumph SC | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Charlotte Independence
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 12/07 | Charleston Battery USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 06/07 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 01/07 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
2-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 25/06 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
1-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 11/06 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 04/06 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
2-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
Richmond Kickers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 16/07 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 12/07 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 04/07 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 25/06 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
1-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 11/06 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 07/06 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 31/05 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Charlotte Independence vs Richmond Kickers?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Charlotte Independence win (65%). Probabilities: Charlotte Independence 65%, draw 19%, Richmond Kickers 15%.
How many goals are expected in Charlotte Independence vs Richmond Kickers?
The model expects 3.95 goals (Charlotte Independence 2.66 · Richmond Kickers 1.29), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Charlotte Independence vs Richmond Kickers?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.