Football · USA USL League One · 26/07, 02:30

Prediction: Corpus Christi FC vs Greenville Triumph SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Corpus Christi FC1.45

Greenville Triumph SC1.03

1X2

46% 27% 27%

Corpus Christi FC Draw Greenville Triumph SC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Corpus Christi FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Greenville Triumph SC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Corpus Christi FC 1500 · Greenville Triumph SC 1457

	Corpus Christi FC	Draw	Greenville Triumph SC
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	47%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Corpus Christi FC (rating 1500 vs 1457).
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Corpus Christi FC	Greenville Triumph SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	2.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 1.91▼	Bet365 1.91
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.60 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:09 +19’	2.05	3.40	3.00
01:17 +6’	1.91▼	3.50▲	3.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:27	1.98	3.39	3.41
20:48	1.90▼	3.47▲	3.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	18	11	2	5	29	21	35
2	One Knoxville SC	16	10	3	3	30	16	33
3	Charlotte Independence	16	9	3	4	36	25	30
4	Spokane Velocity FC	17	9	2	6	22	21	29
5	Antelope Valley Alta	18	7	7	4	26	21	28
6	AC Boise	17	8	3	6	25	24	27
7	Fort Wayne FC	16	7	6	3	24	14	27
8	Forward Madison FC	14	8	2	4	26	14	26
9	Chattanooga Red Wolves	14	8	1	5	27	17	25
10	Portland Hearts of Pine	17	5	5	7	26	28	20
11	Corpus Christi FC	17	4	7	6	20	26	19
12	Westchester SC	17	5	3	9	28	25	18
13	Sarasota Paradise	18	5	3	10	17	28	18
14	FC Naples	17	5	2	10	18	27	17
15	Greenville Triumph SC	14	4	2	8	14	24	14
16	Richmond Kickers	16	3	3	10	12	30	12
17	New York Cosmos	16	3	2	11	17	36	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Corpus Christi FC	Greenville Triumph SC
New York Cosmos	0-0 D	3-0 W
One Knoxville SC	1-1 D	0-2 L
Charlotte Independence	1-2 L	0-1 L
Antelope Valley Alta	0-0 D	1-2 L
Sarasota Paradise	4-1 W	0-0 D
Richmond Kickers	1-0 W	1-2 L
Forward Madison FC	0-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Corpus Christi FC (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Corpus Christi FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
12/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
05/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
01/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
25/06	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
21/06	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	2-0	4-1	2	6	W
14/06	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
10/06	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Cup	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
04/06	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-1	3-2	6	8	W
30/05	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-2	0-3	3	4	L

Greenville Triumph SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-2	0-3	7	5	L
12/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL Cup	0-0	1-2	9	7	L
09/07	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-0	3-0	2	4	W
25/06	Charlotte Independence USA USL Cup	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
21/06	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	1-2	1	2	L
15/06	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-3	0-4	9	4	L
11/06	Loudoun United FC USA USL Cup	1-0	3-1	4	5	W
04/06	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
30/05	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-2	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Corpus Christi FC vs Greenville Triumph SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Corpus Christi FC win (46%). Probabilities: Corpus Christi FC 46%, draw 27%, Greenville Triumph SC 27%.

How many goals are expected in Corpus Christi FC vs Greenville Triumph SC?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Corpus Christi FC 1.45 · Greenville Triumph SC 1.03), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Corpus Christi FC vs Greenville Triumph SC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.