Football · USA USL Championship · 26/07, 02:30

Prediction: Tulsa vs Lexington SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Tulsa1.57

Lexington SC1.46

1X2

39% 27% 34%

Tulsa Draw Lexington SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tulsa 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWDLLWLLW

Lexington SC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDWDWLL

Head-to-head

Tulsa 2–0 Lexington SC (2 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tulsa 1511 · Lexington SC 1502

	Tulsa	Draw	Lexington SC
Our model	39%	26%	34%
Market	39%	27%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tulsa: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tulsa	Lexington SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.3	1.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.2	1.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.30

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:24 +5’	2.30	3.30	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tulsa 2–0–0 Lexington SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/10/25 USA USL Championship	Tulsa	3-0 HT 1-0	Lexington SC
19/05/25 USA USL Championship	Lexington SC	0-2 HT 0-1	Tulsa

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Orange County SC	16	7	7	2	25	18	28
2	San Antonio FC	16	6	7	3	21	19	25
3	New Mexico United	14	7	3	4	19	15	24
4	Tulsa	14	6	4	4	18	16	22
5	Oakland Roots	15	5	6	4	24	22	21
6	Sacramento Republic	14	5	5	4	16	14	20
7	Phoenix Rising FC	16	5	5	6	23	24	20
8	Colorado Switchbacks FC	14	5	4	5	24	22	19
9	El Paso Locomotive FC	15	5	4	6	25	25	19
10	Las Vegas Lights FC	15	5	3	7	23	26	18
11	Lexington SC	14	5	3	6	22	20	18
12	Monterey Bay FC	16	4	3	9	16	25	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tulsa	Lexington SC
El Paso Locomotive FC	1-0 W	4-1 W
Monterey Bay FC	2-0 W	3-1 W
San Antonio FC	1-2 L	2-0 W
Las Vegas Lights FC	0-0 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lexington SC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Tulsa

WWWDLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
12/07	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Cup	1-1	1-3	4	5	L
21/06	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-2	0	4	L
18/06	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
14/06	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	1-3	1-5	4	4	L
07/06	San Antonio FC USA USL Cup	1-0	1-2	2	9	L
31/05	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
23/05	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	3	9	W
17/05	Corpus Christi FC USA USL Cup	0-0	1-0	7	10	W
04/05	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	2	5	W

Lexington SC

LWLWDWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-2	1-4	4	6	L
12/07	Louisville City FC USA USL Cup	2-2	2-4	5	6	L
05/07	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	3-0	4-1	2	3	W
21/06	Indy Eleven USA USL Cup	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
14/06	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	1	2	W
07/06	Detroit City FC USA USL Cup	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
31/05	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	2-0	4-1	7	5	W
24/05	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	1-3	6	6	L
09/05	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	2-0	3-1	6	4	W
03/05	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-2	1-2	2	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tulsa vs Lexington SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tulsa win (39%). Probabilities: Tulsa 39%, draw 27%, Lexington SC 34%.

How many goals are expected in Tulsa vs Lexington SC?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Tulsa 1.57 · Lexington SC 1.46), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Tulsa vs Lexington SC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.