Football · USA USL Championship · 02/08, 02:00

Prediction: Birmingham Legion FC vs Rhode Island FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Birmingham Legion FC1.14

Rhode Island FC1.44

1X2

29% 28% 43%

Birmingham Legion FC Draw Rhode Island FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Birmingham Legion FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

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Rhode Island FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDLDWW

Head-to-head

Birmingham Legion FC 1–1–4 Rhode Island FC (6 last)

Rhode Island FC1-3Birmingham Legion FC
Rhode Island FC1-0Birmingham Legion FC
Rhode Island FC1-1Birmingham Legion FC
Birmingham Legion FC0-1Rhode Island FC
Rhode Island FC2-0Birmingham Legion FC
Birmingham Legion FC1-3Rhode Island FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Birmingham Legion FC 1489 · Rhode Island FC 1533

	Birmingham Legion FC	Draw	Rhode Island FC
Our model	29%	29%	43%
Market	30%	27%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rhode Island FC (rating 1489 vs 1533).
H2H favours Rhode Island FC: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Birmingham Legion FC	Rhode Island FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.2	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 5.4	3.2 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.30

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:49 +25’	3.00	3.30	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Birmingham Legion FC 1–1–4 Rhode Island FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 USA USL Championship	Rhode Island FC	1-3 HT 1-1	Birmingham Legion FC
21/08/25 USA USL Cup	Rhode Island FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Birmingham Legion FC
06/07/25 USA USL Championship	Rhode Island FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Birmingham Legion FC
15/05/25 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Rhode Island FC
01/09/24 USA USL Championship	Rhode Island FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Birmingham Legion FC
18/07/24 USA USL Championship	Birmingham Legion FC	1-3 HT 0-1	Rhode Island FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	17	10	5	2	28	15	35
2	Charleston Battery	17	8	3	6	32	24	27
3	Detroit City FC	16	8	3	5	23	15	27
4	Louisville City FC	16	7	3	6	26	25	24
5	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	16	7	2	7	19	19	23
6	Rhode Island FC	15	6	4	5	25	18	22
7	Miami FC	18	5	6	7	22	29	21
8	Indy Eleven	15	6	3	6	18	17	21
9	Hartford Athletic	16	4	8	4	12	14	20
10	Loudoun United FC	16	2	9	5	19	29	15
11	Birmingham Legion FC	15	2	8	5	16	19	14
12	Brooklyn FC	16	3	4	9	17	27	13
13	Sporting JAX	18	1	5	12	23	46	8

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Birmingham Legion FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Tulsa USA USL Cup	1-1	3-1	13	5	W
06/07	Miami FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	10	1	D
03/07	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	5	8	L
21/06	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
17/06	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
14/06	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
10/06	Corpus Christi FC USA USL Cup	2-0	3-0	6	5	W
04/06	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
24/05	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
17/05	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	3	5	D

Rhode Island FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
19/07	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
12/07	Brooklyn FC USA USL Cup	1-1	1-1	4	7	D
09/07	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	1-2	1-2	3	2	L
05/07	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	10	5	D
14/06	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-0	4-1	3	5	W
07/06	Westchester SC USA USL Cup	2-0	3-0	6	0	W
31/05	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
24/05	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	1-0	4-1	2	7	W
16/05	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL Cup	0-2	1-2	10	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Birmingham Legion FC vs Rhode Island FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Rhode Island FC win (43%). Probabilities: Birmingham Legion FC 29%, draw 28%, Rhode Island FC 43%.

How many goals are expected in Birmingham Legion FC vs Rhode Island FC?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Birmingham Legion FC 1.14 · Rhode Island FC 1.44), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Birmingham Legion FC vs Rhode Island FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.