Football · USA USL Championship · 02/08, 04:00
Prediction: Oakland Roots vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.19Total
Oakland Roots1.17
Pittsburgh Riverhounds1.02
1X2
Oakland Roots
Draw
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Oakland Roots
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Oakland Roots
0–1–3
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
(4 last)
- Oakland Roots0-2Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds5-0Oakland Roots
- Oakland Roots0-0Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Pittsburgh Riverhounds3-1Oakland Roots
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Oakland Roots 1427 · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1515
| Oakland Roots | Draw | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 32% | 31% |
| Market | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pittsburgh Riverhounds (rating 1427 vs 1515).
- H2H favours Pittsburgh Riverhounds: 3-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Oakland Roots | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.8 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.2 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.1 | 1.2 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Oakland Roots 0–1–3 Pittsburgh Riverhounds
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/25 USA USL Championship | Oakland Roots | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
| 14/07/24 USA USL Championship | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Oakland Roots |
| 18/06/23 USA USL Championship | Oakland Roots | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
| 16/10/22 USA USL Championship | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Oakland Roots |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 19 | 31 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 19 | 28 |
| 3 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 25 |
| 4 | New Mexico United | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 24 |
| 5 | Sacramento Republic | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 23 |
| 6 | Tulsa | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 23 |
| 7 | Lexington SC | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 20 | 22 |
| 8 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 25 | 22 |
| 9 | Oakland Roots | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 25 | 27 | 21 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising FC | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 24 | 21 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 26 | 21 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 15 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Oakland Roots
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 23/07 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 11/07 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 05/07 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 4-3 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 17/06 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 07/06 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 18/07 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 16/07 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 12/07 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 14/06 | Indy Eleven USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 07/06 | Charleston Battery USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Charlotte Independence USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Oakland Roots vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Oakland Roots win (39%). Probabilities: Oakland Roots 39%, draw 30%, Pittsburgh Riverhounds 32%.
How many goals are expected in Oakland Roots vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?
The model expects 2.19 goals (Oakland Roots 1.17 · Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1.02), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Oakland Roots vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.