Football · USA USL Championship · 02/08, 04:30
Prediction: Las Vegas Lights FC vs Phoenix Rising FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.77Total
Las Vegas Lights FC1.79
Phoenix Rising FC0.98
1X2
Las Vegas Lights FC
Draw
Phoenix Rising FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Las Vegas Lights FC
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Phoenix Rising FC
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Las Vegas Lights FC
2–2–2
Phoenix Rising FC
(6 last)
- Phoenix Rising FC0-0Las Vegas Lights FC
- Las Vegas Lights FC0-1Phoenix Rising FC
- Phoenix Rising FC1-2Las Vegas Lights FC
- Las Vegas Lights FC0-0Phoenix Rising FC
- Las Vegas Lights FC2-3Phoenix Rising FC
- Phoenix Rising FC0-1Las Vegas Lights FC
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Las Vegas Lights FC (rating 1522 vs 1455).
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Las Vegas Lights FC | Phoenix Rising FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4.6 | 2.5 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Las Vegas Lights FC 2–2–2 Phoenix Rising FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/25 USA USL Championship | Phoenix Rising FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
| 29/05/25 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Phoenix Rising FC |
| 29/09/24 USA USL Championship | Phoenix Rising FC | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
| 02/06/24 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Phoenix Rising FC |
| 27/08/23 USA USL Championship | Las Vegas Lights FC | 2-3 HT 1-0 | Phoenix Rising FC |
| 27/05/23 USA USL Championship | Phoenix Rising FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Las Vegas Lights FC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 19 | 31 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 22 | 19 | 28 |
| 3 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 23 | 25 |
| 4 | New Mexico United | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 24 |
| 5 | Sacramento Republic | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 23 |
| 6 | Tulsa | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 23 |
| 7 | Lexington SC | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 20 | 22 |
| 8 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 25 | 22 |
| 9 | Oakland Roots | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 25 | 27 | 21 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising FC | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 24 | 21 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 26 | 21 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 27 | 15 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Las Vegas Lights FC | Phoenix Rising FC |
|---|---|---|
| Monterey Bay FC | 3-2 W | 3-2 W |
| El Paso Locomotive FC | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Oakland Roots | 0-2 L | 3-4 L |
| Colorado Switchbacks FC | 2-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Phoenix Rising FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Las Vegas Lights FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 19/07 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 12/07 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Cup |
0-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 05/07 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | Oakland Roots USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 24/05 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 18/05 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
Phoenix Rising FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 19/07 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 12/07 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL Cup |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 05/07 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 3-4 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 14/06 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 11/06 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | New Mexico United USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 31/05 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship |
0-3 | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Las Vegas Lights FC vs Phoenix Rising FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Las Vegas Lights FC win (55%). Probabilities: Las Vegas Lights FC 55%, draw 25%, Phoenix Rising FC 19%.
How many goals are expected in Las Vegas Lights FC vs Phoenix Rising FC?
The model expects 2.77 goals (Las Vegas Lights FC 1.79 · Phoenix Rising FC 0.98), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Las Vegas Lights FC vs Phoenix Rising FC?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.