Football · USA USL Championship · 02/08, 05:00

Prediction: Sacramento Republic vs Sporting JAX

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Sacramento Republic2.08

Sporting JAX1.24

1X2

56% 23% 21%

Sacramento Republic Draw Sporting JAX

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sacramento Republic 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLWLDW

Sporting JAX 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDLLLLDWDL

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sacramento Republic (rating 1511 vs 1440).
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sacramento Republic	Sporting JAX
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	1.7 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.9 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/0/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.3	1.1 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.29 → 1.29	Pinn 1.29
X	5.59 → 5.59	Pinn 5.59
2	8.12 → 8.12	Pinn 8.12

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +1’	1.29	5.59	8.12

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Orange County SC	17	8	7	2	27	19	31
2	San Antonio FC	17	7	7	3	22	19	28
3	Colorado Switchbacks FC	16	7	4	5	28	23	25
4	New Mexico United	14	7	3	4	19	15	24
5	Sacramento Republic	15	6	5	4	19	15	23
6	Tulsa	15	6	5	4	18	16	23
7	Lexington SC	16	6	4	6	24	20	22
8	El Paso Locomotive FC	16	6	4	6	27	25	22
9	Oakland Roots	17	5	6	6	25	27	21
10	Phoenix Rising FC	17	5	6	6	23	24	21
11	Las Vegas Lights FC	16	6	3	7	24	26	21
12	Monterey Bay FC	17	4	3	10	17	27	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sacramento Republic	Sporting JAX
Charleston Battery	1-1 D	2-5 L
Monterey Bay FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
San Antonio FC	1-2 L	4-4 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sacramento Republic (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sacramento Republic

WLLDWLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-1	3-1	7	2	W
19/07	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
12/07	AC Boise USA USL Cup	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
09/07	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	2-1	2-1	7	2	W
21/06	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
14/06	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	1	8	W
07/06	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
31/05	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
24/05	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-2	1-2	7	9	L
17/05	Oakland Roots USA USL Cup	0-0	1-0	2	1	W

Sporting JAX

DDLLLLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
19/07	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	2-0	2-2	5	4	D
16/07	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	1	2	W
04/07	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
21/06	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	1-3	2-5	3	5	L
14/06	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	1-3	2-6	5	6	L
11/06	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
07/06	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Cup	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
01/06	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	1-2	2-2	1	1	D
28/05	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	3-0	4-4	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sacramento Republic vs Sporting JAX?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sacramento Republic win (56%). Probabilities: Sacramento Republic 56%, draw 23%, Sporting JAX 21%.

How many goals are expected in Sacramento Republic vs Sporting JAX?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Sacramento Republic 2.08 · Sporting JAX 1.24), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sacramento Republic vs Sporting JAX?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.