Football · USA USL Championship · 26/07, 01:00
Prediction: Miami FC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.85Total
Miami FC1.08
Tampa Bay Rowdies1.77
1X2
Miami FC
Draw
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Miami FC
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Tampa Bay Rowdies
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Miami FC
0–1–5
Tampa Bay Rowdies
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Miami FC 1497 · Tampa Bay Rowdies 1556
| Miami FC | Draw | Tampa Bay Rowdies | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 26% | 52% |
| Market | 22% | 25% | 53% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tampa Bay Rowdies (rating 1497 vs 1556).
- H2H favours Tampa Bay Rowdies: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Miami FC | Tampa Bay Rowdies | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 1.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 70/10/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.8 | 2.9 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.1 | 4.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Miami FC 0–1–5 Tampa Bay Rowdies
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 USA USL Cup | Miami FC | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies |
| 15/06/25 USA USL Championship | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Miami FC |
| 27/04/25 USA USL Cup | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 3-3 HT 3-0 | Miami FC |
| 23/03/25 USA USL Championship | Miami FC | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies |
| 25/08/24 USA USL Championship | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Miami FC |
| 12/04/24 USA USL Championship | Miami FC | 2-5 HT 0-3 | Tampa Bay Rowdies |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 13 | 32 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 22 | 27 |
| 3 | Detroit City FC | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 14 | 27 |
| 4 | Louisville City FC | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 25 | 24 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 18 | 23 |
| 6 | Miami FC | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 24 | 21 |
| 7 | Indy Eleven | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 16 | 21 |
| 8 | Rhode Island FC | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 18 | 19 |
| 9 | Hartford Athletic | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 14 | 19 |
| 10 | Birmingham Legion FC | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 19 | 14 |
| 11 | Brooklyn FC | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 26 | 13 |
| 12 | Loudoun United FC | 15 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 29 | 12 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 17 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 44 | 8 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Miami FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Indy Eleven USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 12/07 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL Cup |
3-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 06/07 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 25/06 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-4 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 31/05 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 4-3 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 21/05 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 17/05 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Cup |
0-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 08/05 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
Tampa Bay Rowdies
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 12/07 | FC Naples USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 05/07 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-3 | 1-4 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 15 | 2 | L |
| 11/06 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 07/06 | Sporting JAX USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
3-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 21/05 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Miami FC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Tampa Bay Rowdies win (53%). Probabilities: Miami FC 22%, draw 25%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 53%.
How many goals are expected in Miami FC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
The model expects 2.85 goals (Miami FC 1.08 · Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.77), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Miami FC vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.