Football · USA USL Championship · 26/07, 04:00
Prediction: Monterey Bay FC vs Orange County SC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.36Total
Monterey Bay FC1.78
Orange County SC1.58
1X2
Monterey Bay FC
Draw
Orange County SC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Monterey Bay FC
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Orange County SC
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Monterey Bay FC
3–1–2
Orange County SC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Monterey Bay FC 1474 · Orange County SC 1500
| Monterey Bay FC | Draw | Orange County SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Market | 41% | 27% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.9
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Monterey Bay FC: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Monterey Bay FC | Orange County SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.5 | 1.8 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 10/90/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4 | 1.8 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.4 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Monterey Bay FC 3–1–2 Orange County SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/25 USA USL Championship | Monterey Bay FC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Orange County SC |
| 01/06/25 USA USL Cup | Monterey Bay FC | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Orange County SC |
| 23/03/25 USA USL Championship | Orange County SC | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Monterey Bay FC |
| 22/09/24 USA USL Championship | Monterey Bay FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Orange County SC |
| 28/04/24 USA USL Championship | Orange County SC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Monterey Bay FC |
| 15/10/23 USA USL Championship | Monterey Bay FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Orange County SC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 25 | 18 | 28 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 19 | 25 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 24 |
| 4 | Tulsa | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 22 |
| 5 | Oakland Roots | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 22 | 21 |
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 20 |
| 7 | Phoenix Rising FC | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 24 | 20 |
| 8 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 19 |
| 9 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 19 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 26 | 18 |
| 11 | Lexington SC | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 20 | 18 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 25 | 15 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Monterey Bay FC | Orange County SC |
|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Rising FC | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Las Vegas Lights FC | 2-3 L | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Orange County SC (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Monterey Bay FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 8 | L |
| 05/07 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 21/06 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/06 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 11/06 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 07/06 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 4-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | AC Boise USA USL Cup |
3-1 | 3-4 | 0 | 7 | L |
Orange County SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 09/07 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 05/07 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 25/06 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 07/06 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Monterey Bay FC vs Orange County SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Monterey Bay FC win (41%). Probabilities: Monterey Bay FC 41%, draw 26%, Orange County SC 33%.
How many goals are expected in Monterey Bay FC vs Orange County SC?
The model expects 3.36 goals (Monterey Bay FC 1.78 · Orange County SC 1.58), with a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Monterey Bay FC vs Orange County SC?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.