Football · USA USL Championship · 26/07, 04:00
Prediction: Oakland Roots vs Sacramento Republic
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.51Total
Oakland Roots1.31
Sacramento Republic1.2
1X2
Oakland Roots
Draw
Sacramento Republic
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Oakland Roots
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Sacramento Republic
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Oakland Roots
1–1–4
Sacramento Republic
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Oakland Roots 1476 · Sacramento Republic 1501
| Oakland Roots | Draw | Sacramento Republic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Sacramento Republic: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Oakland Roots | Sacramento Republic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.5 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.9 | 3.3 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Oakland Roots 1–1–4 Sacramento Republic
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 USA USL Cup | Oakland Roots | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sacramento Republic |
| 17/08/25 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 3-3 HT 2-2 | Oakland Roots |
| 05/05/25 USA USL Championship | Oakland Roots | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Sacramento Republic |
| 21/07/24 USA USL Championship | Oakland Roots | 2-5 HT 0-3 | Sacramento Republic |
| 16/06/24 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Oakland Roots |
| 03/09/23 USA USL Championship | Oakland Roots | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Sacramento Republic |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 25 | 18 | 28 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 19 | 25 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 24 |
| 4 | Tulsa | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 22 |
| 5 | Oakland Roots | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 22 | 21 |
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 20 |
| 7 | Phoenix Rising FC | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 24 | 20 |
| 8 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 19 |
| 9 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 19 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 26 | 18 |
| 11 | Lexington SC | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 20 | 18 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 16 | 25 | 15 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Oakland Roots | Sacramento Republic |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico United | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Phoenix Rising FC | 4-3 W | 0-2 L |
| Colorado Switchbacks FC | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Orange County SC | 2-3 L | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 3 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Sacramento Republic (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Oakland Roots
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 05/07 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 4-3 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 17/06 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 14/06 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 07/06 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
Sacramento Republic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 12/07 | AC Boise USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 09/07 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 21/06 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 07/06 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 17/05 | Oakland Roots USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 3-2 | 14 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Oakland Roots vs Sacramento Republic?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Oakland Roots win (38%). Probabilities: Oakland Roots 38%, draw 29%, Sacramento Republic 33%.
How many goals are expected in Oakland Roots vs Sacramento Republic?
The model expects 2.51 goals (Oakland Roots 1.31 · Sacramento Republic 1.2), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Oakland Roots vs Sacramento Republic?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.