Football · USA USL Championship · 26/07, 04:30

Prediction: Phoenix Rising FC vs Hartford Athletic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Phoenix Rising FC1.49

Hartford Athletic1.13

1X2

45% 27% 28%

Phoenix Rising FC Draw Hartford Athletic

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Phoenix Rising FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Hartford Athletic 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Phoenix Rising FC 2–1–0 Hartford Athletic (3 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Phoenix Rising FC 1454 · Hartford Athletic 1522

	Phoenix Rising FC	Draw	Hartford Athletic
Our model	44%	28%	27%
Market	45%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hartford Athletic (rating 1454 vs 1522).
H2H favours Phoenix Rising FC: 2-1-0.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Phoenix Rising FC	Hartford Athletic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.2	1.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.9	2.3 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.40

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.14 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.46
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.23

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:24 +6’	2.00	3.40	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:10	2.14	3.46	3.23

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Phoenix Rising FC 2–1–0 Hartford Athletic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/07/24 USA USL Championship	Hartford Athletic	0-0 HT 0-0	Phoenix Rising FC
14/05/23 USA USL Championship	Phoenix Rising FC	3-1 HT 1-1	Hartford Athletic
29/05/22 USA USL Championship	Hartford Athletic	1-2 HT 1-2	Phoenix Rising FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Orange County SC	16	7	7	2	25	18	28
2	San Antonio FC	16	6	7	3	21	19	25
3	New Mexico United	14	7	3	4	19	15	24
4	Tulsa	14	6	4	4	18	16	22
5	Oakland Roots	15	5	6	4	24	22	21
6	Sacramento Republic	14	5	5	4	16	14	20
7	Phoenix Rising FC	16	5	5	6	23	24	20
8	Colorado Switchbacks FC	14	5	4	5	24	22	19
9	El Paso Locomotive FC	15	5	4	6	25	25	19
10	Las Vegas Lights FC	15	5	3	7	23	26	18
11	Lexington SC	14	5	3	6	22	20	18
12	Monterey Bay FC	16	4	3	9	16	25	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Phoenix Rising FC	Hartford Athletic
Louisville City FC	0-2 L	0-1 L
New Mexico United	0-4 L	0-0 D
Tampa Bay Rowdies	0-3 L	1-0 W
Orange County SC	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hartford Athletic (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Phoenix Rising FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-2	9	4	W
12/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL Cup	0-2	1-2	6	8	L
05/07	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-3	2	2	L
21/06	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-0	3-4	9	7	L
14/06	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
11/06	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	7	6	L
07/06	New Mexico United USA USL Cup	0-1	0-4	8	1	L
31/05	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	2-0	2-0	5	5	W
24/05	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-3	0-3	3	0	L
17/05	Orange County SC USA USL Cup	1-1	2-1	6	4	W

Hartford Athletic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
12/07	Westchester SC USA USL Cup	2-1	2-1	9	4	W
09/07	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-2	2-2	17	3	D
05/07	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
21/06	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	12	2	D
14/06	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
07/06	New York Cosmos USA USL Cup	3-0	4-1	6	8	W
31/05	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
23/05	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	5	9	L
17/05	Brooklyn FC USA USL Cup	0-0	2-0	1	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Phoenix Rising FC vs Hartford Athletic?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Phoenix Rising FC win (45%). Probabilities: Phoenix Rising FC 45%, draw 27%, Hartford Athletic 28%.

How many goals are expected in Phoenix Rising FC vs Hartford Athletic?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Phoenix Rising FC 1.49 · Hartford Athletic 1.13), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Phoenix Rising FC vs Hartford Athletic?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.