Football · USA USL Championship · 13/09, 01:00

Prediction: Louisville City FC vs El Paso Locomotive FC

Team pages: Louisville City FC · El Paso Locomotive FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Louisville City FC1.42

El Paso Locomotive FC1.41

1X2

36% 28% 36%

Louisville City FC Draw El Paso Locomotive FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Louisville City FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWLDWLDD

El Paso Locomotive FC 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Louisville City FC 3–1 El Paso Locomotive FC (4 last)

El Paso Locomotive FC0-1Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC0-3El Paso Locomotive FC
El Paso Locomotive FC0-1Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC5-2El Paso Locomotive FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours El Paso Locomotive FC (rating 1513 vs 1567).
H2H favours Louisville City FC: 3-0-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Louisville City FC	El Paso Locomotive FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	1.6 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.3	2.9 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.79

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 08:48

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.77 → 1.60▼	Pinn 1.60
X	3.88 → 4.21▲	Pinn 4.21
2	3.85 → 4.77▲	Pinn 4.77

See the full journey (3)

Pinnacle margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
02:20 +21’	1.77	3.88	3.85
02:44 +76’	1.79▲	3.93▲	3.90▲
08:01 +47’	1.60▼	4.21▲	4.77▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Louisville City FC 3–0–1 El Paso Locomotive FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/03/24 USA USL Championship	El Paso Locomotive FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Louisville City FC
25/03/23 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	0-3 HT 0-2	El Paso Locomotive FC
31/07/22 USA USL Championship	El Paso Locomotive FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Louisville City FC
16/02/22 Club Friendly List	Louisville City FC	5-2 HT 2-1	El Paso Locomotive FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive FC	23	12	4	7	39	29	40
2	New Mexico United	21	12	4	5	31	21	40
3	Orange County SC	23	9	9	5	34	32	36
4	Tulsa	22	10	6	6	26	19	36
5	San Antonio FC	23	9	9	5	28	26	36
6	Colorado Switchbacks FC	23	10	4	9	38	36	34
7	Sacramento Republic	22	8	9	5	29	20	33
8	Lexington SC	23	9	4	10	33	29	31
9	Phoenix Rising FC	23	7	9	7	32	31	30
10	Las Vegas Lights FC	23	8	5	10	29	34	29
11	Oakland Roots	23	6	9	8	28	31	27
12	Monterey Bay FC	24	4	6	14	25	42	18

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Louisville City FC	El Paso Locomotive FC
Orange County SC	3-2 W	0-2 L
San Antonio FC	1-1 D	3-0 W
Pittsburgh Riverhounds	1-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: El Paso Locomotive FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Louisville City FC

DWLWLDWLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
30/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
23/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	11	1	L
16/08	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-0	3-2	4	1	W
09/08	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
02/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	3-0	4-5	2	1	L
30/07	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	10	7	W
18/07	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	1-3	7	4	L
05/07	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
14/06	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	14	4	D

El Paso Locomotive FC

WLWLWWWWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	3-1	4-1	7	2	W
27/08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	2-1	3	1	W
23/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
16/08	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	3-0	3-0	4	6	W
09/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
06/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
02/08	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	13	1	L
26/07	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	8	6	W
19/07	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
05/07	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Louisville City FC vs El Paso Locomotive FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Louisville City FC win (36%). Probabilities: Louisville City FC 36%, draw 28%, El Paso Locomotive FC 36%.

How many goals are expected in Louisville City FC vs El Paso Locomotive FC?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Louisville City FC 1.42 · El Paso Locomotive FC 1.41), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Louisville City FC vs El Paso Locomotive FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.