Football · USA USL Championship · 20/09, 03:00

Prediction: Colorado Switchbacks FC vs New Mexico United

Team pages: Colorado Switchbacks FC · New Mexico United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Colorado Switchbacks FC1.93

New Mexico United1.29

1X2

51% 25% 24%

Colorado Switchbacks FC Draw New Mexico United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Colorado Switchbacks FC 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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New Mexico United 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Colorado Switchbacks FC 1–2–3 New Mexico United (6 last)

New Mexico United1-0Colorado Switchbacks FC
Colorado Switchbacks FC4-0New Mexico United
New Mexico United3-2Colorado Switchbacks FC
Colorado Switchbacks FC1-2New Mexico United
New Mexico United2-2Colorado Switchbacks FC
New Mexico United1-1Colorado Switchbacks FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Colorado Switchbacks FC 1532 · New Mexico United 1582

	Colorado Switchbacks FC	Draw	New Mexico United
Our model	51%	24%	24%
Market	51%	25%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New Mexico United (rating 1532 vs 1582).
H2H favours New Mexico United: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Colorado Switchbacks FC	New Mexico United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.6	1.6 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.60

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:27 +1’	1.75	3.60	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Colorado Switchbacks FC 1–2–3 New Mexico United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 USA USL Championship	New Mexico United	1-0 HT 0-0	Colorado Switchbacks FC
17/05/26 USA USL Cup	Colorado Switchbacks FC	4-0 HT 3-0	New Mexico United
28/03/26 USA USL Championship	New Mexico United	3-2 HT 0-0	Colorado Switchbacks FC
25/09/25 USA USL Championship	Colorado Switchbacks FC	1-2 HT 1-0	New Mexico United
29/06/25 USA USL Cup	New Mexico United	2-2 HT 2-1	Colorado Switchbacks FC
08/06/25 USA USL Championship	New Mexico United	1-1 HT 1-1	Colorado Switchbacks FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive FC	24	13	4	7	41	30	43
2	New Mexico United	22	12	5	5	33	23	41
3	Colorado Switchbacks FC	24	11	4	9	40	37	37
4	Tulsa	23	10	6	7	27	21	36
5	Sacramento Republic	23	9	9	5	30	20	36
6	Orange County SC	24	9	9	6	34	34	36
7	San Antonio FC	24	9	9	6	29	28	36
8	Lexington SC	24	10	4	10	37	30	34
9	Phoenix Rising FC	24	8	9	7	34	32	33
10	Las Vegas Lights FC	24	9	5	10	31	34	32
11	Oakland Roots	24	6	9	9	29	35	27
12	Monterey Bay FC	24	4	6	14	25	42	18

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Colorado Switchbacks FC	New Mexico United
San Antonio FC	2-1 W	1-2 L
Loudoun United FC	5-4 W	0-0 D
Lexington SC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Colorado Switchbacks FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Colorado Switchbacks FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-1	1	4	W
05/09	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-1	5-4	4	4	W
30/08	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	2	2	W
23/08	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
20/08	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-3	2	4	L
16/08	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-2	12	5	W
09/08	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	2	8	L
02/08	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	14	4	L
26/07	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
23/07	Miami FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	7	5	W

New Mexico United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	2-0	2-2	1	4	D
06/09	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
30/08	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	2	12	L
27/08	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-1	6	6	W
23/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
16/08	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
09/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	1-1	5-2	2	3	W
02/08	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
16/07	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	2-0	4-1	1	6	W
05/07	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	2-0	2-1	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Colorado Switchbacks FC vs New Mexico United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Colorado Switchbacks FC win (51%). Probabilities: Colorado Switchbacks FC 51%, draw 25%, New Mexico United 24%.

How many goals are expected in Colorado Switchbacks FC vs New Mexico United?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Colorado Switchbacks FC 1.93 · New Mexico United 1.29), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Colorado Switchbacks FC vs New Mexico United?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.