Football · USA USL Championship · 20/09, 04:30

Prediction: Las Vegas Lights FC vs Hartford Athletic

Team pages: Las Vegas Lights FC · Hartford Athletic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Las Vegas Lights FC1.36

Hartford Athletic1.17

1X2

41% 27% 32%

Las Vegas Lights FC Draw Hartford Athletic

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Las Vegas Lights FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Hartford Athletic 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Las Vegas Lights FC 0–3 Hartford Athletic (3 last)

Hartford Athletic2-1Las Vegas Lights FC
Las Vegas Lights FC0-2Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic3-0Las Vegas Lights FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Las Vegas Lights FC 1528 · Hartford Athletic 1565

	Las Vegas Lights FC	Draw	Hartford Athletic
Our model	40%	29%	31%
Market	42%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hartford Athletic: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Las Vegas Lights FC	Hartford Athletic
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.9	2.5 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.50

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:22 +7’	2.15	3.50	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Las Vegas Lights FC 0–0–3 Hartford Athletic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/08/24 USA USL Championship	Hartford Athletic	2-1 HT 1-1	Las Vegas Lights FC
23/07/23 USA USL Championship	Las Vegas Lights FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Hartford Athletic
18/09/22 USA USL Championship	Hartford Athletic	3-0 HT 2-0	Las Vegas Lights FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive FC	24	13	4	7	41	30	43
2	New Mexico United	22	12	5	5	33	23	41
3	Colorado Switchbacks FC	24	11	4	9	40	37	37
4	Tulsa	23	10	6	7	27	21	36
5	Sacramento Republic	23	9	9	5	30	20	36
6	Orange County SC	24	9	9	6	34	34	36
7	San Antonio FC	24	9	9	6	29	28	36
8	Lexington SC	24	10	4	10	37	30	34
9	Phoenix Rising FC	24	8	9	7	34	32	33
10	Las Vegas Lights FC	24	9	5	10	31	34	32
11	Oakland Roots	24	6	9	9	29	35	27
12	Monterey Bay FC	24	4	6	14	25	42	18

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Las Vegas Lights FC	Hartford Athletic
Orange County SC	2-0 W	2-2 D
Charleston Battery	0-2 L	2-1 W
Miami FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Phoenix Rising FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
Detroit City FC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Las Vegas Lights FC (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Las Vegas Lights FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
06/09	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
30/08	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
23/08	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
16/08	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
09/08	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
06/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
02/08	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
26/07	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
19/07	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	5	6	W

Hartford Athletic

DLDLDWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	1-0	3-1	1	10	W
06/09	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
03/09	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
30/08	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	2-2	3-2	6	6	W
16/08	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
09/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
02/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
26/07	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
19/07	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
09/07	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-2	2-2	17	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Las Vegas Lights FC vs Hartford Athletic?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Las Vegas Lights FC win (41%). Probabilities: Las Vegas Lights FC 41%, draw 27%, Hartford Athletic 32%.

How many goals are expected in Las Vegas Lights FC vs Hartford Athletic?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Las Vegas Lights FC 1.36 · Hartford Athletic 1.17), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Las Vegas Lights FC vs Hartford Athletic?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.