Football · USA USL Championship · 21/09, 01:00
Prediction: Sacramento Republic vs San Antonio FC
Team pages: Sacramento Republic · San Antonio FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.24Total
Sacramento Republic1.39
San Antonio FC0.85
1X2
Sacramento Republic
Draw
San Antonio FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Sacramento Republic
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
San Antonio FC
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sacramento Republic
3–1–2
San Antonio FC
(6 last)
- San Antonio FC2-1Sacramento Republic
- San Antonio FC1-3Sacramento Republic
- Sacramento Republic0-0San Antonio FC
- San Antonio FC2-1Sacramento Republic
- Sacramento Republic1-0San Antonio FC
- Sacramento Republic3-1San Antonio FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sacramento Republic 1534 · San Antonio FC 1494
| Sacramento Republic | Draw | San Antonio FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 30% | 22% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sacramento Republic (rating 1534 vs 1494).
- H2H favours Sacramento Republic: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sacramento Republic | San Antonio FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.5 | 2.3 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.1 | 5.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sacramento Republic 3–1–2 San Antonio FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 USA USL Championship | San Antonio FC | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Sacramento Republic |
| 03/08/25 USA USL Championship | San Antonio FC | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Sacramento Republic |
| 15/06/25 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 0-0 HT 0-0 | San Antonio FC |
| 06/10/24 USA USL Championship | San Antonio FC | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Sacramento Republic |
| 25/08/24 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 1-0 HT 0-0 | San Antonio FC |
| 28/10/23 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 3-1 HT 0-0 | San Antonio FC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 25 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 44 | 31 | 46 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 24 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 37 | 27 | 43 |
| 3 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 40 | 37 | 38 |
| 4 | Lexington SC | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 43 | 30 | 37 |
| 5 | Tulsa | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 29 | 23 | 37 |
| 6 | Orange County SC | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 34 | 40 | 36 |
| 7 | Sacramento Republic | 23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 30 | 20 | 36 |
| 8 | San Antonio FC | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 29 | 28 | 36 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 35 | 33 |
| 10 | Phoenix Rising FC | 25 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 35 | 35 | 33 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 24 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 29 | 35 | 27 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 43 | 18 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sacramento Republic | San Antonio FC |
|---|---|---|
| Monterey Bay FC | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Tulsa | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Oakland Roots | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sacramento Republic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 06/09 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 1 | D |
| 23/08 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 06/08 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
4-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 19/07 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
San Antonio FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 30/08 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 12 | W |
| 23/08 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 16/08 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-3 | 0-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 09/08 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Indy Eleven USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 19/07 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 05/07 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sacramento Republic vs San Antonio FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sacramento Republic win (49%). Probabilities: Sacramento Republic 49%, draw 28%, San Antonio FC 23%.
How many goals are expected in Sacramento Republic vs San Antonio FC?
The model expects 2.24 goals (Sacramento Republic 1.39 · San Antonio FC 0.85), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Sacramento Republic vs San Antonio FC?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.