Football · USA USL Championship · 13/09, 04:00

Prediction: Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights FC

Team pages: Orange County SC · Las Vegas Lights FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Orange County SC1.6

Las Vegas Lights FC1.34

1X2

42% 27% 31%

Orange County SC Draw Las Vegas Lights FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Orange County SC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLLLDD

Las Vegas Lights FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDDWWLLL

Head-to-head

Orange County SC 2–2–2 Las Vegas Lights FC (6 last)

Las Vegas Lights FC2-3Orange County SC
Orange County SC1-1Las Vegas Lights FC
Orange County SC4-0Las Vegas Lights FC
Orange County SC1-3Las Vegas Lights FC
Las Vegas Lights FC1-0Orange County SC
Las Vegas Lights FC1-1Orange County SC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orange County SC	Las Vegas Lights FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	0.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.3	1.5 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.79

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:25

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.25
X	3.65 → 3.65	Pinn 3.65
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:01 +444’	2.25	3.65	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Orange County SC 2–2–2 Las Vegas Lights FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 USA USL Championship	Las Vegas Lights FC	2-3 HT 1-1	Orange County SC
08/03/26 USA USL Championship	Orange County SC	1-1 HT 1-0	Las Vegas Lights FC
20/07/25 USA USL Championship	Orange County SC	4-0 HT 3-0	Las Vegas Lights FC
27/04/25 USA USL Cup	Orange County SC	1-3 HT 1-2	Las Vegas Lights FC
06/04/25 USA USL Championship	Las Vegas Lights FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Orange County SC
06/10/24 USA USL Championship	Las Vegas Lights FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Orange County SC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive FC	23	12	4	7	39	29	40
2	New Mexico United	21	12	4	5	31	21	40
3	Orange County SC	23	9	9	5	34	32	36
4	Tulsa	22	10	6	6	26	19	36
5	San Antonio FC	23	9	9	5	28	26	36
6	Colorado Switchbacks FC	23	10	4	9	38	36	34
7	Sacramento Republic	22	8	9	5	29	20	33
8	Lexington SC	23	9	4	10	33	29	31
9	Phoenix Rising FC	23	7	9	7	32	31	30
10	Las Vegas Lights FC	23	8	5	10	29	34	29
11	Oakland Roots	23	6	9	8	28	31	27
12	Monterey Bay FC	24	4	6	14	25	42	18

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orange County SC	Las Vegas Lights FC
Oakland Roots	1-1 D	0-0 D
El Paso Locomotive FC	2-0 W	1-2 L
Miami FC	4-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Orange County SC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orange County SC

WDDWWLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
30/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
23/08	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-2	1-5	9	6	L
16/08	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-3	5	1	L
09/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	0-1	0-3	1	5	L
02/08	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
26/07	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-1	1	3	W
09/07	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	2-0	2-2	4	3	D
05/07	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
25/06	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-1	4-2	3	4	W

Las Vegas Lights FC

LWWDDWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
30/08	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
23/08	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
16/08	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
09/08	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
06/08	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
02/08	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
26/07	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
19/07	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
05/07	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-2	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Orange County SC win (42%). Probabilities: Orange County SC 42%, draw 27%, Las Vegas Lights FC 31%.

How many goals are expected in Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Orange County SC 1.6 · Las Vegas Lights FC 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.