Football · USA USL Championship · 13/09, 04:00

Prediction: Sacramento Republic vs Detroit City FC

Team pages: Sacramento Republic · Detroit City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

Sacramento Republic1.06

Detroit City FC1.01

1X2

35% 33% 32%

Sacramento Republic Draw Detroit City FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Sacramento Republic 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWLDWDDD

Detroit City FC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLDWDWDD

Head-to-head

Sacramento Republic 3–0 Detroit City FC (3 last)

Detroit City FC0-1Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic1-0Detroit City FC
Detroit City FC0-2Sacramento Republic

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Detroit City FC (rating 1515 vs 1562).
H2H favours Sacramento Republic: 3-0-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sacramento Republic	Detroit City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.8	1.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.5	2.2 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	5.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 21.83

Under 21.96

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:25

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.02 → 2.02	Pinn 2.02
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.20
2	3.85 → 3.85	Pinn 3.85

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:26 +479’	2.02	3.20	3.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sacramento Republic 3–0–0 Detroit City FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/07/24 USA USL Championship	Detroit City FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Sacramento Republic
23/04/23 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	1-0 HT 1-0	Detroit City FC
12/06/22 USA USL Championship	Detroit City FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Sacramento Republic

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	El Paso Locomotive FC	23	12	4	7	39	29	40
2	New Mexico United	21	12	4	5	31	21	40
3	Orange County SC	23	9	9	5	34	32	36
4	Tulsa	22	10	6	6	26	19	36
5	San Antonio FC	23	9	9	5	28	26	36
6	Colorado Switchbacks FC	23	10	4	9	38	36	34
7	Sacramento Republic	22	8	9	5	29	20	33
8	Lexington SC	23	9	4	10	33	29	31
9	Phoenix Rising FC	23	7	9	7	32	31	30
10	Las Vegas Lights FC	23	8	5	10	29	34	29
11	Oakland Roots	23	6	9	8	28	31	27
12	Monterey Bay FC	24	4	6	14	25	42	18

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sacramento Republic	Detroit City FC
Tulsa	0-1 L	1-0 W
Sporting JAX	5-0 W	6-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sacramento Republic

WDWWLDWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	11	5	D
30/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
23/08	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	2-1	2-2	3	3	D
16/08	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
09/08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	7	0	D
06/08	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
02/08	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	4-0	5-0	4	5	W
26/07	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-1	3-1	7	2	W
19/07	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
09/07	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	2-1	2-1	7	2	W

Detroit City FC

WWWLDWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	12	4	D
30/08	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
23/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
16/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
09/08	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	0	4	W
02/08	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-2	4	9	D
26/07	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	8	7	L
19/07	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	5	7	W
03/07	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	6	8	W
14/06	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	3-1	6-2	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sacramento Republic vs Detroit City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sacramento Republic win (35%). Probabilities: Sacramento Republic 35%, draw 33%, Detroit City FC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Sacramento Republic vs Detroit City FC?

The model expects 2.07 goals (Sacramento Republic 1.06 · Detroit City FC 1.01), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Sacramento Republic vs Detroit City FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.