Football · USA USL Championship · 12/09, 03:30
Prediction: New Mexico United vs Indy Eleven
Team pages: New Mexico United · Indy Eleven
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
New Mexico United1.96
Indy Eleven0.82
1X2
New Mexico United
Draw
Indy Eleven
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
New Mexico United
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Indy Eleven
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
New Mexico United
3–0
Indy Eleven
(3 last)
- Indy Eleven1-3New Mexico United
- New Mexico United3-2Indy Eleven
- Indy Eleven1-2New Mexico United
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New Mexico United (rating 1594 vs 1477).
- H2H favours New Mexico United: 3-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| New Mexico United | Indy Eleven | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 0.8 | 1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.9 | 2.3 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.1 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · New Mexico United 3–0–0 Indy Eleven
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/24 USA USL Championship | Indy Eleven | 1-3 HT 1-0 | New Mexico United |
| 16/09/23 USA USL Championship | New Mexico United | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Indy Eleven |
| 28/05/22 USA USL Championship | Indy Eleven | 1-2 HT 0-1 | New Mexico United |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 29 | 40 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 31 | 21 | 40 |
| 3 | Orange County SC | 23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 34 | 32 | 36 |
| 4 | Tulsa | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 26 | 19 | 36 |
| 5 | San Antonio FC | 23 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 28 | 26 | 36 |
| 6 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 36 | 34 |
| 7 | Sacramento Republic | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 33 |
| 8 | Lexington SC | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 33 | 29 | 31 |
| 9 | Phoenix Rising FC | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 31 | 30 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 29 | 34 | 29 |
| 11 | Oakland Roots | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 28 | 31 | 27 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 42 | 18 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | New Mexico United | Indy Eleven |
|---|---|---|
| San Antonio FC | 1-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Loudoun United FC | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: New Mexico United (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
New Mexico United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 12 | L |
| 27/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 16/08 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 5-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 16/07 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 05/07 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
Indy Eleven
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 23/08 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 16/08 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 01/08 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 16/07 | Miami FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 04/07 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in New Mexico United vs Indy Eleven?
According to our model, the most likely result is a New Mexico United win (63%). Probabilities: New Mexico United 63%, draw 23%, Indy Eleven 14%.
How many goals are expected in New Mexico United vs Indy Eleven?
The model expects 2.78 goals (New Mexico United 1.96 · Indy Eleven 0.82), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in New Mexico United vs Indy Eleven?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.