Football · USA USL Championship · 17/09, 00:00

Prediction: Hartford Athletic vs Sporting JAX

Team pages: Hartford Athletic · Sporting JAX

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Hartford Athletic2.38

Sporting JAX1.25

1X2

62% 20% 18%

Hartford Athletic Draw Sporting JAX

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Hartford Athletic 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDLDLDWWWD

Sporting JAX 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDWDLLLWLW

Head-to-head

Hartford Athletic 1–0 Sporting JAX (1 last)

Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hartford Athletic (rating 1554 vs 1440).
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hartford Athletic	Sporting JAX
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.5 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.5 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.1	0.7 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.96

Under 31.83

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:34

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.57▲	Pinn 1.57
X	4.26 → 4.32▲	Pinn 4.32
2	4.81 → 4.89▲	Pinn 4.89

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
01:12 +62’	1.55	4.26	4.81
02:16 +77’	1.57▲	4.32▲	4.89▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hartford Athletic 1–0–0 Sporting JAX

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 USA USL Championship	Sporting JAX	0-3 HT 0-1	Hartford Athletic

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	24	14	6	4	41	23	48
2	Charleston Battery	24	12	4	8	49	31	40
3	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	25	11	5	9	28	25	38
4	Detroit City FC	23	10	7	6	28	19	37
5	Hartford Athletic	23	8	10	5	24	23	34
6	Louisville City FC	24	9	6	9	39	39	33
7	Rhode Island FC	22	9	5	8	34	24	32
8	Indy Eleven	22	8	6	8	28	28	30
9	Miami FC	24	5	9	10	28	42	24
10	Loudoun United FC	23	3	11	9	26	40	20
11	Birmingham Legion FC	22	3	10	9	28	34	19
12	Brooklyn FC	22	4	5	13	23	39	17
13	Sporting JAX	24	3	5	16	30	63	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hartford Athletic	Sporting JAX
Charleston Battery	2-1 W	2-5 L
Birmingham Legion FC	3-2 W	3-2 W
Indy Eleven	1-1 D	0-1 L
Loudoun United FC	0-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hartford Athletic (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hartford Athletic

LDLDLDWWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
03/09	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
30/08	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	2-2	3-2	6	6	W
16/08	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
09/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
02/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
26/07	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
19/07	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
09/07	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-2	2-2	17	3	D
05/07	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	1	4	L

Sporting JAX

LDWDLLLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	1-0	3-2	2	2	W
30/08	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	0-3	1-4	5	4	L
23/08	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	0-0	3-2	5	2	W
16/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
02/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-4	0-5	0	5	L
26/07	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
19/07	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	2-0	2-2	5	4	D
16/07	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	1	2	W
04/07	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
21/06	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	1-3	2-5	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hartford Athletic vs Sporting JAX?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hartford Athletic win (62%). Probabilities: Hartford Athletic 62%, draw 20%, Sporting JAX 18%.

How many goals are expected in Hartford Athletic vs Sporting JAX?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Hartford Athletic 2.38 · Sporting JAX 1.25), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Hartford Athletic vs Sporting JAX?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.