Football · USA USL Championship · 26/09, 01:00

Prediction: Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City FC

Team pages: Hartford Athletic · Louisville City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Hartford Athletic1.66

Louisville City FC0.98

1X2

52% 27% 21%

Hartford Athletic Draw Louisville City FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Hartford Athletic 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDLDWWWDWW

Louisville City FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDWLDDLW

Head-to-head

Hartford Athletic 1–2–3 Louisville City FC (6 last)

Louisville City FC1-0Hartford Athletic
Louisville City FC1-0Hartford Athletic
Hartford Athletic1-1Louisville City FC
Hartford Athletic2-1Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC6-0Hartford Athletic
Louisville City FC1-1Hartford Athletic

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hartford Athletic (rating 1555 vs 1508).
H2H favours Louisville City FC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hartford Athletic	Louisville City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1.6 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.7	3.4 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:27

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.91 → 2.94▲	Pinn 2.94
X	3.68 → 3.72▲	Pinn 3.72
2	2.17 → 2.18▲	Pinn 2.18

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
04:42 +37’	2.91	3.68	2.17
05:46 +41’	2.94▲	3.72▲	2.18▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hartford Athletic 1–2–3 Louisville City FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/07/26 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Hartford Athletic
26/10/25 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Hartford Athletic
18/05/25 USA USL Championship	Hartford Athletic	1-1 HT 0-1	Louisville City FC
25/08/24 USA USL Championship	Hartford Athletic	2-1 HT 0-1	Louisville City FC
28/04/24 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	6-0 HT 3-0	Hartford Athletic
08/10/23 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Hartford Athletic

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	25	15	6	4	45	23	51
2	Charleston Battery	25	13	4	8	50	31	43
3	Detroit City FC	24	11	7	6	29	19	40
4	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	26	11	5	10	28	26	38
5	Hartford Athletic	25	9	11	5	27	24	38
6	Louisville City FC	25	10	6	9	41	40	36
7	Indy Eleven	23	9	6	8	32	28	33
8	Rhode Island FC	23	9	5	9	35	26	32
9	Miami FC	25	6	9	10	30	43	27
10	Birmingham Legion FC	24	3	11	10	32	42	20
11	Loudoun United FC	24	3	11	10	27	42	20
12	Brooklyn FC	24	4	6	14	25	45	18
13	Sporting JAX	25	3	5	17	30	65	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hartford Athletic	Louisville City FC
Tampa Bay Rowdies	3-1 W	4-5 L
Detroit City FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
Birmingham Legion FC	3-2 W	2-1 W
Indy Eleven	1-1 D	1-2 L
Loudoun United FC	0-2 L	2-1 W
Rhode Island FC	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hartford Athletic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Sporting JAX USA USL Championship	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
13/09	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	1-0	3-1	1	10	W
06/09	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
03/09	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	0-1	2-1	5	6	W
30/08	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	2-2	3-2	6	6	W
16/08	Miami FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
09/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
02/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	3	2	L
26/07	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	0	0	D
19/07	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	2	5	L

Louisville City FC

LWLDWLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	2-1	2-1	1	5	W
13/09	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-2	1-2	12	4	L
06/09	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
30/08	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
23/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	11	1	L
16/08	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-0	3-2	4	1	W
09/08	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
02/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	3-0	4-5	2	1	L
30/07	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	10	7	W
18/07	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	1-3	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hartford Athletic win (52%). Probabilities: Hartford Athletic 52%, draw 27%, Louisville City FC 21%.

How many goals are expected in Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City FC?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Hartford Athletic 1.66 · Louisville City FC 0.98), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hartford Athletic vs Louisville City FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.